NRA Stares Down Gun Backlash Without Its Old Power Brokers

(Bloomberg Businessweek) -- In February 2018, two weeks after a shooting at a Florida high school left 17 dead, President Donald Trump made a blunt declaration to a roomful of politicians during a televised discussion on school safety: “You’re afraid of the NRA.” The president promised action and—just as he has this week following two mass shootings in Dayton, Ohio, and El Paso, Texas, that killed 31—vowed to expand background checks on firearms purchases as a way to prevent shootings.

The earlier push for background checks brought a familiar figure to the White House. Chris Cox, then the National Rifle Association’s chief lobbyist and longtime power broker, emerged from the Oval Office a day after Trump’s promises on guns with a clear message of his own: “POTUS & VPOTUS support the Second Amendment, support strong due process and don’t want gun control,” Cox wrote on Twitter.

Trump soon pivoted to discussing gun-safety measures such as arming teachers and narrow, state-level restrictions on firearms access tied to severe mental-health risks—steps broadly supported by the NRA. Cox had done his job.

The difference this time, after a weekend with two massacres, is that there was no publicized visit from NRA officials to the White House. There’s also no Cox. He no longer serves as executive director of the NRA’s lobbying arm, having been ousted in June after losing a power struggle with NRA chief Wayne LaPierre. (The White House did not immediately respond to a request for comment.)

This is the first test of the NRA since it became enmeshed in a civil war, resulting in a flurry of lawsuits among former allies, the departure of key players, and the consolidation of power by an embattled LaPierre.

Trump has already signaled a turn back towards support for background-check legislation proposed by Senators Joe Manchin and Pat Toomey. On Monday, Trump called for “red flag” laws to keep firearms away from people found to be dangerous. “Mental illness and hatred pulls the trigger, not the gun,” he said. The bipartisan bill would make it more difficult for the mentally ill to purchase firearms and would require background checks for transactions at gun shows or over the internet. 

Trump could also move without congressional support to restore executive actions on gun control undertaken by President Barack Obama in 2016 that allowed mental health records to be part of the background-check system. Trump rescinded those measures a month into his presidency.

What comes next will be a test of both the changing political landscape on guns and the still-formidable power of the NRA, which finds itself mired in costly legal battles. 

A report detailing alleged lavish spending under LaPierre, published in April by The Trace, led New York Attorney General Letitia James to open a probe into the NRA’s nonprofit status. Karl Racine, the attorney general for Washington D.C., has also opened an investigation. After former NRA President Oliver North complained about financial misconduct at the gun association, LaPierre pushed him out of his unpaid post. The NRA sued North in an attempt to bar him from seeking legal fees, and North countersued. The litigation could lead to both LaPierre and North giving sworn depositions. 

LaPierre has replaced his internal rivals. Cox, a 17-year veteran of the NRA’s Institute for Legislative Action, has been succeeded as chief lobbyist by Jason Ouimet, who previously worked as a deputy at the institute.  The unrest inside the group has prompted some large donors to withhold donations until LaPierre steps down.  

As part of the unraveling, the NRA has broken with and sued its longtime advertising firm Ackerman McQueen, which for decades shaped the group’s mission. The loss of Ackerman McQueen has already led to noticeable changes in the tone and tactics of the NRA’s public statements in the wake of shootings in El Paso and Dayton. After past shootings, the NRA typically declined to rush out a statement. Following the 2012 elementary school shooting in Newtown, Connecticut, the group waited a week before LaPierre offered an aggressive defense of firearms: “The only thing that stops a bad guy with a gun, is a good guy with a gun,” he said at the time.

This time around, however, the NRA issued a prompt statement on Sunday, one day after the weekend’s first massacre in El Paso. “The NRA is committed to the safe and lawful use of firearms by those exercising their Second Amendment freedoms,” the group said. On Monday, after Trump discussed the shootings, the NRA issued a second statement in support of measures focused on mental health.

These unusually mild and prompt statements came without counterpoint from NRA’s fierce talking heads on its digital-video network. The feud with Ackerman McQueen has led to the abrupt end of NRA TV, a website that promoted videos by aggressive gun-rights spokeswoman Dana Loesch and other NRA stalwarts. Loesch, a conservative commentator and radio host, took to Twitter following the weekend shootings to voice support for the Second Amendment in general—without boosting the NRA, as she has in the past.

Disarray at the biggest gun-rights group can be seen in Congress. Despite spending $9.6 million on lobbying in 2017 and 2018, none of the NRA’s top five bills became law. The group also spent less on the 2018 midterm elections than it has in the past: $10 million, down 64 percent from its 2014 spending.

The NRA’s reported revenue dropped 15 percent from 2016 to 2017, according to tax filings, which could herald decreased spending in the 2020 presidential election. The group spent a record $30.3 million in 2016.

In the meantime, though, there isn’t too much for the NRA to fear on the federal level. Despite Trump’s meetings with senators who support background checks, it remains unlikely any gun-control measure would pass a divided Congress. Gun-rights supporters have historically been dedicated voters who support allied politicians, even if the NRA doesn’t fund the campaigns.

Even without sharp risk of new gun regulations, the first test of LaPierre’s unrivaled leadership has gotten mixed reviews.

“It’s about as competent a statement as they could make under the circumstances. I think it's a fine, intelligent response,” said Richard Feldman, a former political director at the NRA. “There are no gun owners who feel good about guns being used in such tragedies.” Aaron Davis, a former NRA fundraiser, saw the rhetoric as softer and less obviously strategic than in the past.
The NRA itself is continuing to project a robust image. “With many in the media writing the obituary of the NRA, we are scoring big wins in the legislative, legal, and public policy arenas,” said public affairs director Andrew Arulanandam in an emailed statement.

There’s even a chance the current chaos at the NRA could distract from the group’s lobbying efforts. “The current state of affairs could also help the NRA avoid scrutiny for pushing an agenda that stands in the way of strengthening gun laws in the U.S.,” said Timothy Johnson, a research fellow at Media Matters whose work focuses on firearms and public safety.

(Michael R. Bloomberg, founder of Bloomberg News parent Bloomberg LP, is a donor to candidates and groups that support gun control, including Everytown for Gun Safety.) —With David Voreacos

To contact the editor responsible for this story: Aaron Rutkoff at arutkoff@bloomberg.net, Jillian GoodmanBob Ivry

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