New Evidence Social Distancing Is on the Wane

(Bloomberg Businessweek) -- There’s growing evidence that life is returning to normal in the U.S. even though Covid-19, the disease caused by the novel coronavirus, remains a threat. These charts show that the reopening of the country’s economy has occurred steadily since early April, when social distancing was at its maximum.

The reopening, which shows no sign of slowing, makes it more important than ever for people to practice good hygiene. You didn’t need to wear a surgical mask when you were home alone with the dog and the TV, but if you’re now circulating in public, you need to take precautions against being infected with the virus—or giving it to someone else if you have it without knowing.

The problem is, some people don’t see it that way. They’re abandoning safe practices at the very time they’re increasing their exposure to one another and, potentially, to the virus. It’s happening across the spectrum, from protesters against police violence to pool partiers. That sets the stage for a fresh outbreak.

“I am concerned about this. The original epidemic was accelerated by the presence of large numbers of people in close proximity,” says Dr. Thomas Birch, medical director of the Institute for Clinical Research at Holy Name Medical Center in Teaneck, N.J. 

Birch, who’s a friend of mine, says some people are taking too many chances, while others are unnecessarily fearful and acting like hermits. He says everyone, regardless of political inclination, should continue simple, basic precautions such as wearing masks, washing hands thoroughly and frequently, maintaining physical distance, and avoiding potential “super-spreader” situations such as sports bars, where bellowing fans could spray viral particles over a wide range.

“We need to find a middle ground that allows us to open,” Birch says . “If most people do the right thing, it will probably work. It doesn’t make the world perfect, but you tend to get a good result.”

These reopening charts are based on data supplied by SafeGraph Inc., a company that collects location data from mobile phones. They show that nationally, the share of people staying home all day rose from 25% on March 1 to about 43% in early April, before gradually descending to just over 32% on June 1. The figures are calculated as a seven-day rolling average, so the latest numbers include the street protests related to the death of George Floyd under the knee of a Minneapolis police officer.

New York and New Jersey, the states hardest hit by Covid-19, continue to have the highest proportion of people staying home, about 40%. At the low end are Alabama and Mississippi, with less than 25% staying home, according to the SafeGraph data. Going by metro area, New York City is at 46%; Los Angeles, 41%; Philadelphia, 41%; Chicago, about 39%; and Minneapolis, about 35%.

The good thing about reopening is that people are earning money again. The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the jobless rate fell in May to 13.3% from 14.7% in April, as 2.5 million jobs were created. The median estimate for the May unemployment rate had been 19.5%, according to a survey of economists surveyed by Bloomberg. 

The bad thing, of course, is the risk of a resurgence of Covid-19 cases. It would be hard for authorities to shut the economy back down at this stage even if there were an upsurge, says Stephen Stanley, chief economist of Amherst Pierpont Securities LLC. Stanley argues that public health experts hurt their credibility by seeming to go along with crowding when it involved protests. “A second round of lockdowns was always going to be a long shot, but the odds of such an option have basically moved to zero, regardless of how the virus evolves,” he wrote in a note to clients on June 5.

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