Merkel’s Paths to Power Don’t Guarantee a Strong Government

(Bloomberg Businessweek) -- Angela Merkel’s future has caused Germany much angst. Her own Christian Democrats (CDU) spent much of last year in turmoil over who should succeed her at the end of her expected 16-year reign as chancellor. Then this month, her junior coalition partner, the Social Democrats (SPD), elected a duo of leftist leaders who question key tenets of the CDU’s governing philosophy.

None of this looks great for Merkel. And yet the 65-year-old former physicist remains hugely popular, both inside and outside the country. Much of the political establishment in Germany and Europe wants a seasoned leader in charge when Berlin assumes the presidency of the European Union in the second half of 2020. And Merkel herself has said she doesn’t want to go anywhere. Despite appearances to the contrary, the chancellor is well-positioned to ride out the next two years in whatever way she wants.

For one, the CDU and its sister party, the Christian Social Union (CSU) in Bavaria, could still work out a revised coalition agreement with the SPD. Should that fail, Merkel faces two possible scenarios: snap elections, or, more likely, governing in the minority. Parliament already approved the 2020 budget, and she still has support there from more moderate SPD lawmakers and from the Greens, who are weighing a potential future alliance with the CDU, which would give her room to maneuver even without a majority.

Despite the energy coming from the formerly sidelined socialist wing of the party, the SPD is hardly negotiating from a position of strength. At the party convention in early December, it saddled its new leaders with a list of concessions to extract from Merkel as a condition of their remaining in government, including a 30% increase in the minimum wage and significant new public investment.

The CDU and CSU have already signaled they’re in no mood to bend to the party’s demands—CSU caucus leader Alexander Dobrindt has already called the SPD agenda a “warmed-up box of socialist moth balls” and said that under no circumstances would the coalition partners renegotiate their agreement from March 2018. A final reckoning is still a long way off: Talks won’t begin in earnest until after the yearend holidays, and then it could be weeks more before the parties make or break a deal.

To dissolve parliament and call new elections would require the approval of the president, and short of a highly unusual attempt by parliament to install another chancellor, Merkel would have to propose and lose a confidence vote. For a stateswoman of her stature to bring about her own downfall would be unthinkable, says Andrea Römmele, professor of political communication at the Hertie School, a Berlin-based university. “To go down in the annals of history like that—I don’t see it,” she says.

There are reasons why the status quo may prevail. The SPD has been losing support for years, and abandoning the government would amount to potentially damaging losses in a snap election. Based on recent opinion polls, the party’s parliamentary caucus could shrink by as much as 30%. Plus, “in the long-run, Germany can’t afford a minority government,” says Michael Grosse-Brömer, the CDU/CSU whip. “As a strong industrial nation in the middle of Europe it must be capable to act.”

While Germany hasn’t been immune to the rise of the populist, green, and other movements that have splintered Europe’s political spectrum, Merkel is a potent reminder that the center still holds. Weak leadership in Berlin could hamper a response should the economy—Europe’s largest—turn south. The country just barely avoided a recession in the third quarter, and though growth is expected to bounce back at the end of the year, the central bank cut its 2020 GDP forecast from a 1.2% expansion to just 0.6%.

With pillars of the post-World War II order from NATO to the World Trade Organization under fire, the departure of one the most outspoken defenders of multilateralism could have far-reaching implications. “If one day she isn’t around anymore,” Grosse-Brömer says, “many will miss her.” —With Arne Delfs

To contact the editor responsible for this story: Jillian Goodman at jgoodman74@bloomberg.net

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