Mass Airline Layoffs in Swing States Would Further Imperil Trump
Mass Airline Layoffs in Swing States Would Further Imperil Trump
(Bloomberg Businessweek) -- In last week’s issue, I wrote about President Donald Trump’s puzzling reluctance to push a big stimulus package that would jolt the economy just before voters head to the polls in November to decide his fate. Instead, the president has mostly stood by as coronavirus relief measures run out and Congress stalemates on further aid to businesses and workers. One cost of this inaction will soon become clear: If the government’s payroll support program for airlines is allowed to expire as scheduled on Wednesday, the airlines say they’ll cut tens of thousands of jobs—many concentrated in battleground states including North Carolina, Florida, Arizona, Pennsylvania, and Texas.
The danger of mass job loss in the airline industry has been apparent since the virus first emerged. Few people are eager to travel in enclosed steel tubes and risk becoming sick, or worse, so U.S. air travel has plummeted. A $25 billion relief package under the CARES Act mitigated the employment effects by forbidding airlines from involuntarily furloughing workers before Oct. 1. For months, airlines and workers’ unions have been imploring Congress and the president to extend that payroll aid, without any success.
With air travel not expected to return to pre-Covid levels for at least three more years, according to a Moody’s report, airlines are preparing to move ahead with mass job cuts once aid runs out. Because many airline hubs are located in swing states, those cuts will fall heavily on areas Trump needs to win.
Airlines have made no secret of these impending cuts. U.S. labor law requires employers with more than 100 workers to give 60 days’ notice before cutting more than 50 employees. Over the summer, airlines including American, United, Spirit, and Delta filed notices under the Worker Adjustment and Retraining Notification (WARN) Act that they are planning to lay off tens of thousands of workers beginning Oct. 1. Together, those airlines operate hubs in Phoenix, Philadelphia, Charlotte, Miami, and Houston.
A review of WARN notices filed in battleground states finds that many of the job cuts will fall on precisely these areas. Absent a last-minute extension of federal aid—Democrats in the House of Representatives introduced one Monday night, though its prospects are murky—American’s plan to cut 19,000 jobs will hit Arizona, North Carolina, and Pennsylvania. Spirit will cut about 1,000 jobs in Florida. United expects to furlough around 12,000 workers, even after reaching an agreement with its pilots’ union on Monday to avoid almost 4,000 job cuts. In addition, WARN filings show that there will be thousands more layoffs in these states from smaller airlines, concessionaires, airport restaurants, and other ancillary services.
The political fallout isn’t limited to the presidential race, either. Control of the Senate could also hang in the balance. Republican Senator Cory Gardner of Colorado, locked in an uphill battle for reelection, has led an effort among Senate Republicans to extend aid for airline jobs before it expires on Wednesday. Failure will make his race even tougher. Among other cuts that could hit Colorado as soon as Thursday, United warned in July that it plans nearly 3,000 “employment separations” at its Denver hub if payroll support isn’t renewed.
It’s been clear for several weeks that absent a strong, public push from Trump, a new relief package with aid for airlines is unlikely to be forthcoming. The fight to replace late Supreme Court Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg, the New York Times’ bombshell report on Trump’s tax avoidance, and the distraction of tonight’s presidential debate all make the odds of Congress reaching agreement on further stimulus even slimmer. A new round of avoidable airline layoffs will likely only add to the anti-incumbent mood that threatens Trump and vulnerable GOP senators. It’s clear the economic recovery is slowing down. Now, instead of a new stimulus check, tens of thousands of swing-state voters could be heading into Election Day with a pink slip.
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