‘Crusader’s Nightmare’ or Not, Virus Threatens African Security

(Bloomberg Businessweek) -- To hear jihadist militants tell it, the coronavirus is an opportunity not to be missed. With governments worldwide focused on the crisis, Islamist groups insist the time is ripe for increased attacks, and they say their followers are getting the message, especially in fragile African countries.

Islamic State has dubbed the outbreak “the crusader’s worst nightmare,” urging adherents to take up arms. The leader of Nigeria’s Boko Haram terrorist group says his fighters are immune to the virus, but that it will be lethal for “infidels.” JNIM, an al Qaeda-linked faction operating in the Sahel region south of the Sahara, described the pandemic as a “God-sent soldier” after an April attack in Mali.

Academics who study jihadist groups say that while terrorist activity in Africa has picked up in recent months, it’s unclear how much of the increase is in response to the corona-inspired call to arms. But the outbreak nonetheless threatens the ability of African armies—already hobbled by corruption, low pay, and even lower morale—to effectively combat militants who have focused on the region after being largely defeated in the Middle East.

After years of terrorizing Somalia, Nigeria, and the Sahel, jihadists have started to spread to other parts of Africa. Islamic State claimed its first attack in the Democratic Republic of Congo last year as part of a new offensive to form what it calls a “province” in the area. Farther south, an increasingly lethal jihadist insurgency has killed 1,000 people and threatens a multi-billion dollar gas project in Mozambique.

“This is a dangerous moment for domestic, regional, and international forces,” says Comfort Ero, Africa program director with the International Crisis Group. “They have to find ways to balance dealing with security and the pandemic, which is another war in itself.”

Fears of contagion and restrictions on travel spurred the U.S. Africa Command to call off annual training exercises in Morocco, Tunisia and Senegal. The European Union has suspended training Malian soldiers. And the African Union peacekeeping mission in Somalia has halted rotations among its 20,000 troops.

Those forces have come under frequent attack by the al-Shabaab extremist group, which blames foreign troops for bringing the virus into Somalia. The insurgents have launched daily assaults that have disrupted efforts to halt the spread of the disease, according to the Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project, a researcher in the U.S.

“You have to take measures to protect peacekeepers, but you need to continue protecting towns and civilians from the jihadists,” says Smail Chergui, the African Union’s Commissioner for Peace and Security. “These groups are trying to spread their extremist ideology and continue recruitment.”

That’s not to say that jihadist organizations won’t face the same constraints as the rest of the world when it comes to the virus. They have scant medical support, and fighters often bunk close together in remote outposts, so any outbreak could be devastating for them. In areas where the insurgents wield effective political control, their inability to provide meaningful relief to civilians suffering from the disease would erode any support they might have among the population, according to Alex Thurston, a political science professor at the University of Cincinnati.

“Severe outbreaks could expose the hollow and brittle nature of jihadists’ ‘shadow governance,’” Thurston wrote on his Sahel Blog.

Despite their bravado, some jihadist groups have started advising members to take precautions to avoid infection. In recent publications, Islamic State leaders have told adherents to follow health guidelines such as avoiding infected people, though they continue to call for new attacks. And with fighters dying from the virus, it’s becoming “a ‘divine test’ for these groups, and only the true ones will survive and thrive,” says Mathieu Guidere, a professor at the University of Paris who studies extremism.

As lockdowns ease in West Africa, some military leaders say the virus is simply another peril among the many that their forces face daily. Mali’s army chief of staff, Gen. Abdoulaye Coulibaly, said his soldiers have all the material they need and military bases are well-equipped, including with hand-washing stations. “It’s not the coronavirus that will mean militants win the battle,” Coulibaly said during an April visit to troops. “A lack of preparation will.”

Still, the economic fallout from the pandemic, which is expected to drag the continent into its worst recession on record, threatens to drain scarce resources needed to fight growing numbers of groups linked to al Qaeda or Islamic State. Countries in the Sahel are already stretched beyond capacity as increased jihadist attacks in recent years have forced more than 4 million people to flee their homes.

Combined military outlays in Mali, Burkina Faso, Chad, Niger, and Mauritania have jumped by a third to $1.4 billion since 2014, but that’s about half what the small and peaceful Czech Republic devoted to defense in 2018, according to NATO statistics. Those countries already struggle to maintain that level of spending, and “the pandemic will further strain these resources,” says Niagale Bagayoko, head of the African Security Sector Network research group.

Even before the pandemic hit, the Chadian army, considered one of the region’s strongest, struggled to pay wages. Mali fails to provide its forces with basic equipment to protect its borders, the U.S. Department of State says. In Nigeria, corruption and mismanagement have undermined the fight against Boko Haram, according to the U.S. Congressional Research Service.

Niger’s president, Mahamadou Issoufou, said the virus has created a “triple threat of security, health and economic crises” in the Sahel. “Unemployment, increasing poverty, and the number of people suffering from hunger will certainly have an impact,” he said in a May 19 video meeting of African leaders.

In far-flung military outposts in the Sahel, soldiers lack basic sanitation and potable water, and frustration is running high among troops since hundreds perished in rebel attacks on remote camps last year. The spread of the virus threatens supplies of fuel and food to troops and will make it harder for governments to cycle personnel in and out of those hardship posts, says Marc-Andre Boisvert, a security analyst at the University of East Anglia in the U.K.

“Soldiers will have to think about wearing face masks and keeping distance,” Boisvert says. “Not to mention the difficulties of having to isolate and treat soldiers in the field.” —With Michael Olukayode

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