A Slovakian Strongman Is Poised for an Electoral Comeback

(Bloomberg Businessweek) -- The candles still burn in front of the photograph of the happy couple, though the flowers surrounding it are wilting as winter takes hold in Slovakia’s capital, Bratislava. Passersby barely seem to notice the makeshift shrine off the main square anymore.

The murder of journalist Jan Kuciak and his fiancée, Martina Kusnirova, almost two years ago sparked the country’s biggest street protests in decades against corruption and cronyism and forced the resignation of Prime Minister Robert Fico.

But memories are short. Fico has tightened control over Slovakia’s most popular party and looks certain to lead it to another resounding election victory in February. Depending on the size and makeup of the coalition that’s formed afterward, Fico could wind up as prime minister once again.

Rather than pledging to clean up the country, though, he’s ramping up his anti-immigration rhetoric and courting the far-right. “We have been here for 20 years,” Fico declared in December as his party marked its anniversary. “We survived various crises, but the party is as strong as ever.”

Slovakia may be small, with a population of less than 6 million, but it’s been a key democratic stronghold in the former communist East bloc. Sandwiched between black sheep Viktor Orban’s “illiberal democracy” in Hungary and increasingly nationalist Poland, Slovakia is a euro member and a staunch political ally of Germany.

Before stepping down in March 2018, Fico was prime minister on and off for a decade, carefully balancing promises of greater welfare spending and immigration curbs while making the right noises toward Brussels and Berlin. As the country reeled from the murder of Kuciak, who had been investigating white-collar crimes with political connections, Fico quickly became the lightning rod for anger over graft.

Lately, in addition to xenophobic appeals, he’s joined Hungary and Poland in blaming billionaire George Soros for meddling in domestic politics. When Fico’s Smer party has needed votes in parliament, it’s teamed with the far-right. “Slovakia is still perceived to be more accommodative toward the EU agenda than Poland or Hungary,” says Grigorij Meseznikov, who’s headed the Institute for Public Affairs, Slovakia’s leading think tank, since 1999. “But with Fico in power for another four years, Slovakia would get closer to Orban.”

While Hungary became the model for economic transition from communism to capitalism in the 1990s, Slovakia lagged behind. The ouster of its authoritarian leadership in 1998 finally put the smaller half of what had been Czechoslovakia on the path toward European Union membership. In 2009, under Fico, it adopted the euro. A skilled yet inexpensive labor pool helped turn it into Europe’s biggest per-capita producer of cars, with Porsche Cayennes and Volkswagen Touaregs rolling off the line at a vast plant in Bratislava.

As in Hungary and Poland, there’s no united opposition that can stop Fico from winning. The only questions are whether he can form a coalition big enough to ensure passage of his agenda and how he’ll wield power if he does. On the other hand, there’s also the matter of his health. During Smer’s 20th anniversary party on Dec. 7, he was whisked away to a hospital with high blood pressure. Fico himself briefed reporters on his condition.

A former key ally, one-time culture minister Marek Madaric, says the returning ruler may choose to emulate Poland’s governing party chief, Jaroslaw Kaczynski, who has no formal government role. “His goal is not to be the prime minister at any cost,” says Madaric, who quit Smer after the reporter’s murder. “He sees that things can function even if he’s not in the executive, just as he sees it in Poland.”

If Slovakia were to join the ranks of nations chided for their lacking commitment to democracy, it would come at a sensitive time for the EU. The populist rebellion may look like it’s run its course in Western Europe, as Britain completes Brexit and Italy’s government steers a more stable course, but in the East the risks remain. The backdrop isn’t helped by German Chancellor Angela Merkel, a long-time bridge between East and West, preparing to step aside in 2021.

While Fico’s popularity has dipped, he retains plenty of political clout. Coalition lawmakers were nervous about the fate of the 2020 budget when parliament convened to approve it in December. Then Fico showed up in the chamber to shake hands. The budget got through and hours of toasts followed.

To form the next government, Smer might need the help of the nationalist People’s Party. Some among its leadership have praised the Slovak fascist state that sent most of the country’s Jews to death camps during World War II. So far, the party’s lawmakers have helped Fico push through legislation that extends a moratorium on opinion polls to 50 days before the election in a bid to tamp down opposition upstarts. (Slovakia’s constitutional court has delayed its implementation.) Support for an autocrat who can take the country in hand is high, says Martin Slosiarik, director of Focus polling agency in Bratislava. “Most Smer voters believe that a strong leader is good for Slovakia even if he bypasses democratic standards.”

To contact the editor responsible for this story: Jillian Goodman at jgoodman74@bloomberg.net, Rodney Jefferson

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