How 14 Policy Scenarios Might Change After the U.S. Election
How 14 Policy Scenarios Might Change After the U.S. Election
China
(Bloomberg Businessweek) -- Biden wins: Biden teams with Europe to restrain China. “The Democrats are more likely to link economic, strategic, and human-rights concerns, taking relations into an even more difficult period.”
Trump wins: Trump keeps the heat on China, though having won reelection he could revert to “my buddy Xi.”
Budget
Democratic Senate: Still lacking 60 votes, Dems use reconciliation procedure to pass tax- and spending-related legislation with a simple majority that’s exempt from filibuster.
Trump wins: Lame-duck status could set in quickly. “Generally second-term presidents who don’t have a strong base in Congress tend to not get a whole lot done.”
Health Care
Trump wins: He pursues a lawsuit to have the Affordable Care Act declared unconstitutional.
Social Justice
Regulation
Trump wins: A “bonfire” for rulebooks as Trump continues deregulation.
Finance
Biden wins: Fed Chair Jerome Powell, FDIC Chair Jelena McWilliams, and other Trump appointees could stymie re-regulation attempts.
Trump wins: Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, the housing finance giants, “are on a glide path to exiting conservatorship.”
Taxes
Courts
Antitrust
Filibuster
Democratic Senate: Democrats might get rid of the filibuster, which former President Obama in July called a “Jim Crow relic.” Without that constraint on the majority, policy would swing with each change in government control, as in Europe.
Trade
Biden wins: Trump’s national security tariffs on steel and aluminum imported from key allies get rolled back. “No single act has angered our trading partners more.”
Foreign Policy
Environment
Republican Senate: Biden rejoins Paris climate accord but will have a hard time getting his $2 trillion climate plan past a Senate filibuster.
Read next: The Nine Types of Voters Who Will Decide 2020
Rodger Baker, vice president for strategic analysis, Stratfor, a unit of RANE Network Inc.
Stephen Myrow, managing partner, Beacon Policy Advisors LLC.
Stephen Myrow, managing partner, Beacon Policy Advisors LLC.
Stephen Stanley, chief economist, Amherst Pierpont Securities LLC.
Bloomberg Government.
Bloomberg Government.
Andrew Husby, Bloomberg Economics.
Nathan Dean, Benjamin Elliott, Bloomberg Intelligence.
Nathan Dean, Benjamin Elliott, Bloomberg Intelligence.
Andrew Husby, Bloomberg Economics.
Brendan Dunn, Akin Gump Strauss Hauer & Feld LLP.
Stephen Myrow, managing partner, Beacon Policy Advisors LLC.
Nathan Dean, Benjamin Elliott, Bloomberg Intelligence.
Brian Pomper, Akin Gump Strauss Hauer & Feld LLP.
Rodger Baker, vice president for strategic analysis, Stratfor, a unit of RANE Network Inc.
Stephen Stanley, chief economist, Amherst Pierpont Securities LLC.
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