World Bank Cuts Sub-Saharan 2018 Growth Forecast as Risks Mount

(Bloomberg) -- The World Bank reduced its forecast for economic growth in sub-Saharan Africa as the external environment becomes less favorable amid mounting global trade risks and weakening demand for the area’s products.

Gross domestic product in the region will probably expand by 2.7 percent in 2018, the Washington-based lender said in an emailed copy of its Africa Pulse report on Wednesday. That’s down from the World Bank’s June forecast of 3.1 percent contained in the Global Economic Prospects publication.

“The road ahead is bumpy,” it said. “The tightness of oil supply suggests that oil prices are likely to remain elevated through the rest of the year and into 2019. Metals prices have been lower than previously forecast and may remain subdued in 2019 and 2020 amid muted demand, particularly in China.”

Sluggish expansion in Angola, Nigeria and South Africa, the three biggest economies, is weighing on economic activity in the area, it said.

The World Bank cut its estimate for South African GDP expansion to 1 percent this year from 1.4 percent before, and sees growth in 2019 remaining subdued as high unemployment constrains domestic demand. It cut its forecast for Nigerian growth this year by 0.2 percentage point to 1.9 percent.

--With assistance from David Malingha Doya.

To contact the reporters on this story: Ana Monteiro in Johannesburg at amonteiro4@bloomberg.net;Adelaide Changole in Nairobi at achangole2@bloomberg.net

To contact the editors responsible for this story: Rene Vollgraaff at rvollgraaff@bloomberg.net, Jacqueline Mackenzie

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