Wilkins Says Tame Wages Imply Continued Slack in Canadian Economy
Wilkins Says Tame Wages Imply Continued Slack in Canadian Economy
(Bloomberg) --
Canada's economy is producing slower wage
growth than what would be expected given the overall strength of
the labor market, a potential sign of continued slack, though
pay gains should accelerate as the economy emerges from its
slowdown, according to the Bank of Canada's No. 2 official.
Wage gains that averaged about 2.5 percent last year are
still below what would be consistent with a tight labor market
that would ordinarily fuel inflation pressures, Senior Deputy
Governor Carolyn Wilkins said in a speech that sought to take a
closer look at the issue.
“The Bank has pointed to relatively subdued wage growth as
a possible sign that the job market may have more room to run,”
Wilkins said.
Weakness in the oil sector is partly responsible, along
with some structural factors such as underemployment in the
“gig” economy, she said. At the same time, the evidence shows
other sectors and regions are producing wages gains more
consistent with a tighter labor market.
“Some of the weakness in wage growth can be explained by
continued adjustment in energy-intensive regions to lower oil
prices,” Wilkins said. “We also need to be mindful of stronger
wage gains and signs of labor shortages in other parts of the
economy. Monetary policy must be forward-looking.”
Wilkins reiterated the Bank of Canada's most recent outlook
that weakness in the oil and housing sectors is expected to be
only temporary. At a rate decision earlier this month, the Bank
of Canada indicated the slump has made its push toward higher
interest rates less urgent, but policy makers have also stuck to
their view that further hikes will eventually be needed.
“We expect the economic expansion to pick up again after
this detour, in the second quarter of 2019,” Wilkins said,
“This should lead to a pick-up in wage growth as well.”
Her speech looked in depth at the puzzle of why low
unemployment hasn’t produced faster wage gains. Canada's jobless
rate of 5.6 percent is at the lower end of the central bank's
estimated range of the country's natural unemployment rate of
between 5.5 percent and 6.5 percent, Wilkins said.
“By many measures, the labor market in Canada is in good
shape,” she said.
Still, that measure of trend unemployment is highly
uncertain, meaning the Bank of Canada should also be looking at
other data such as wages for indications of slack.
An economy with a tight labor market should be able to
produce wage growth of around 3 percent, according to Wilkins.
She found an important factor for the sluggishness was lagging
pay in oil producing regions. There are also some other sectoral
changes going on in the economy such as fast growth in service-
sector jobs.
But those don't fully explain the phenomenon.
“Even after accounting for these regional and sectoral
factors, wage growth overall is still a bit short of what one
would expect at this stage,” she said.
She outlined a list of other potential factors that
included: skills mismatches, caution among workers to change
jobs, reluctance to move, expensive housing in some markets, and
global structural factors such as technological disruption and
growing market concentration.
©2019 Bloomberg L.P.