(Bloomberg Opinion) -- U.S. President Donald Trump complained on his phone call with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy in July that the U.S. was providing more assistance to Ukraine than Europe. That’s not quite true – and yet Zelenskiy didn’t contradict Trump, even when the U.S. president said, “Germany does almost nothing for you – all they do is talk.” He had good reasons for that, beyond simply trying to be nice to a powerful conversation partner who is known to like flattery.
A linear comparison of the U.S. and European support efforts for Ukraine is impossible because of the chaotic way in which U.S. and EU sources release data on it. But the available sources do provide some insights.
According to the U.S. Agency for International Development, all departments of the U.S. federal government have provided about $2.1 billion in direct financial assistance to Ukraine in fiscal years 2014 through 2019 – that is, since Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych was deposed. (The agency, however, doesn’t have complete data for 2018 and 2019.) Data from other sources – the government website Foreignassistance.gov and the Washington-based Center for International Policy’s Security Assistance Monitor – add up to about $2.7 billion for the same period.
No matter how one counts, direct U.S. assistance to Ukraine since its “revolution of dignity” has amounted to between $2 billion and $3 billion. Washington has also provided $3 billion in loan guarantees.
This doesn’t come close to what the European Union says it has provided to Ukraine: 15 billion euros ($16.42 billion) in grants and loans. But most of that aid came in the form of debt. When the EU first designed the Ukraine package in 2014, it amounted to 12.8 billion euros, and only 879 million euros of that was supposed to be grants. So when it comes to money Ukraine doesn't have to repay, the U.S. is a bigger donor.
The Ukrainian economics ministry does its own monitoring of technical assistance by foreign countries. According to its data, the U.S. provides more funding than the EU and all of its countries and institutions combined.
This, presumably, is one reason Zelenskiy told Trump that “the European Union should be our biggest partner but technically the United States is a much bigger partner.” But it’s about more than the numbers.
Zelenskiy told Trump in July that he was especially grateful for the U.S. support for Ukraine’s defense. Indeed, there’s a much bigger security component in the U.S. assistance than in the European package. Europe is more concerned with things like governance and the rule of law – and it has done well by Zelenskiy on that front. (It may help that his pick for prime minister, Oleksiy Honcharuk, was formerly head of the Better Regulation Delivery Office, an EU-funded institution-building project.)
While this kind of assistance is valuable, and helps maintain Ukraine’s hope of joining the EU someday, the U.S. focus on helping Ukraine stand up to Russian military pressure is at least equally important.
Zelenskiy also mentioned during the call with Trump that he appreciates the U.S. willingness to keep cranking up sanctions against Russia. Europe is softer on Russia, which remains a key trade partner for the EU. Since the content of the call became publicly known, Zelenskiy has explained that he was concerned about the Council of Europe’s decision to restore Russia’s membership and the lack of European resistance to NordStream II, a Russian natural gas pipeline project meant to slash Ukraine’s revenues from gas transit. The U.S. is the pipeline’s staunch opponent.
In other words, even if the EU provides, on aggregate, more aid, the U.S. contribution to Ukraine’s campaign to assert its independence includes a uniformly tough stance on Russia. This stance strengthens Zelenskiy’s position in any talks with Russia about ending the war in eastern Ukraine. The U.S. is not a party to those talks – they are mediated by Germany and France – but Zelenskiy fears that if Washington doesn’t have his back, the Europeans might push him to make unacceptable compromises.
Thus it makes perfect sense that Zelenskiy went out of his way to thank Trump for U.S. assistance, which, depending on whose data you trust, either has risen considerably during his presidency or at least hasn’t shrunk. It also explains why Zelenskiy went out of his way to humor Trump when he asked that Ukraine investigate a couple of his pet conspiracy theories.
With Trump facing impeachment because of the conversation, I doubt Zelenskiy will get the support he wants. Anything Trump does for him now will arouse suspicions of a quid pro quo. The Ukrainian president will need to work more diligently on his relationship with the European leaders. And he may have to start with an apology for agreeing with Trump about the lack of European commitment to Ukraine.
To contact the editor responsible for this story: Tobin Harshaw at tharshaw@bloomberg.net
This column does not necessarily reflect the opinion of the editorial board or Bloomberg LP and its owners.
Leonid Bershidsky is Bloomberg Opinion's Europe columnist. He was the founding editor of the Russian business daily Vedomosti and founded the opinion website Slon.ru.
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