Virus Hot Spots Reemerge in Mideast, Threatening Economies

(Bloomberg) -- Covid infections are rising again in parts of the Middle East, posing a new threat to the region’s economies already battered by the collapse in oil prices.

Cases have been rising in Iran, which is battling the Middle East’s worst outbreak, with more than half a million people infected so far. Israel was forced to impose a second nationwide lockdown last month, with the move estimated to cost the economy almost $7.5 billion -- about 2% of 2019 GDP.

The resurgence of the disease has clouded prospects for a rebound. The International Monetary Fund is predicting a contraction of 5% in the Middle East and North Africa, with budget deficits in almost all countries in the Persian Gulf set to hit double digits.

The outbreak continues to spread in OPEC’s second-biggest oil producer Iraq. While infections have dropped in top member Saudi Arabia, they rose by a record in the United Arab Emirates this week.

Testing varies hugely across the region. The UAE has processed 11 million tests -- more than its population of about 10 million -- but Iran, which has 80 million people and the Mideast’s highest virus fatality rate, has carried out just 4.3 million tests.

Here’s the situation in major countries:

Iran

Iran has confirmed almost 30,000 fatalities, far higher than any other country in the Middle East. Last week, Health Minister Saeed Namaki said that some 25 million could be infected. This was based on studies of several cities in the country’s north, which showed more than 30% of people had contracted the virus, the state-run Hamshahri newspaper reported on Oct. 10.

As with some other countries, there have been concerns about the reliability of Iran’s official reporting from the start of the outbreak and at least one newspaper has come under fire for publishing reports claiming the government has been deliberately under-reporting cases.

On Wednesday, Deputy Health Minister Iraj Harirchi said in an interview on state TV that the number of people who die from the virus in Iran could be more than double the numbers officially reported because of unreliable test results.

Iraq

With more than 400,000 confirmed cases and 10,000 fatalities, Iraq has one of the worst outbreaks in the Middle East. Cases have continued to rise in OPEC’s second-biggest oil producer.

Brent crude, which averaged more than $64 last year, plunged in March and April as the pandemic stifled fuel use. The country expects prices to remain at around $41 to $42 a barrel this year before rising to $45 in the first quarter of 2021, the state-run Al-Sabah newspaper reported, citing an interview with Oil Minister Ihsan Abdul Jabbar.

Israel

The spread of the virus is slowing in Israel four weeks into the second nationwide lockdown, imposed because officials worried that critically ill cases would overwhelm hospitals during the Jewish holidays. There have been almost 300,000 confirmed cases and more than 2,100 fatalities in Israel, the only rich nation to go into two lockdowns.

Israel’s coronavirus cabinet voted to loosen restrictions starting on Sunday. The economy will reopen gradually, possibly over several months, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has said, which would be in stark contrast to the rushed pace in the spring.

Saudi Arabia

Saudi Arabia’s coronavirus curve has flattened steadily over the past four months and daily new cases have dropped by more than 90% since peaking in June. The kingdom has reported more than 340,000 cases but has tested fewer people than the UAE.

So far, Saudi Arabia has disclosed more than 7.1 million tests in a population of 34 million.

Deaths from the virus have dropped significantly more slowly than the number of cases, even considering the delay in the disease’s progression. As a result, the coronavirus fatality rate has risen to 1.5% this month from 0.5% in May.

UAE

The United Arab Emirates has seen cases rise again since the end of August, in part due to higher testing -- nearly 100,000 tests have been conducted every day for the past two weeks. The UAE, home to over 9.8 million people, has conducted more than 11 million tests since the start of the pandemic and has the highest rate of daily tests per million in the world, according to Our World in Data.

The OPEC member has been lifting curbs for the past few months and recently reopened schools, offering students a mix of online and distance learning. Dubai, a sheikhdom in the UAE, has allowed tourists to enter since July.

Qatar

Qatar, home to 2.4 million people, has reported more than 128,000 infections and has conducted about 850,000 tests since the start of the pandemic.

So far, 220 people have died from the virus, giving Qatar the lowest case-fatality rate in the region, and the second-lowest in the world after Singapore, according to data from Johns Hopkins University.

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