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Sabato Says Virginia Leans GOP; N.J. Votes Early: Election Update

Virginia, N.J. Rivals Vie for Last-Minute Votes: Election Update

Candidates in Virginia and New Jersey, the only two U.S. states holding gubernatorial races this year, battled for last-minute voters with the election a day away. Democrats are fighting to hang onto control in both states.

The races are the first major ones since Democrat Joe Biden became president. With Biden’s approval ratings in decline, Republican wins are possible in either state. Currently, 27 Republicans and 23 Democrats are governors in the U.S. The race is closer in Virginia, where incumbent Ralph Northam is barred by term limits from running again. Former Governor Terry McAuliffe, a Democrat, is neck-and-neck with Republican Glenn Youngkin in Virginia’s most expensive gubernatorial race ever.

In New Jersey, first-term Democratic Governor Phil Murphy led by eight percentage points against Republican Jack Ciattarelli, a former state lawmaker, in the most recent poll. New Jersey voters lean Democratic, but frustration over high taxes has kept Democrats from winning second terms as governor for more than four decades.

New York City, meanwhile, is likely to pick Democrat Eric Adams as its next mayor. Adams led Republican Curtis Sliwa by 40 points heading into the election. 

Gubernatorial Candidate James Rallies With Adams (8:05 p.m.)

New York Attorney General Letitia James rallied with Democratic mayoral candidate Eric Adams in Harlem Monday night. Right before leading a chant where she shouted “Eric” and the crowd yelled back “Adams,” she touted her candidacy for governor that she announced last week. 

“I just want some of that Harlem love, because you all know that I announced a few days ago that I’m running for governor for the State of New York, because we need transformational change in the state,” she said.

James’s investigation into allegations of sexual harassment by Governor Andrew Cuomo helped trigger his resignation in August. 

Jumaane Williams, who’s running for re-election as New York’s public advocate and has also filed as a gubernatorial candidate, also attended the rally to encourage voting. -- Elaine Chen

Sabato’s Crystal Ball Changes Virginia to Leans Republican (3:57 p.m. NY)

Sabato’s Crystal Ball, an elections forecaster and newsletter at the University of Virginia, has changed its rating for the Virginia gubernatorial race to “Leans Republican” from “Leans Democratic,” which the race had been listed as since March.

The center called the race “one of the most vexing races we can remember” and said it “has provided clues for the upcoming midterm, but it does not always predict the future.”

The most interesting outcome might happen if the race breaks clearly one way or the other. A Youngkin win by several points “would offer confirmation that the political environment has broken wide open against Democrats” whereas a McAuliffe win by several points might indicate “Biden’s poor approval ratings are not as much of a drag on Democrats as one might otherwise think,” Sabato’s Crystal Ball said. -- Patrick McHale

Early Voting in New Jersey

New Jersey’s election includes early in-person voting this year. 

As of Monday, more than 700,000 people had voted early, with Democrats making up 58% of those cast and Republicans 23%, according to the Rebovich Institute for New Jersey Politics. 

New Jersey has 6.6 million registered voters -- 2.6 million Democrats, 1.5 million Republicans and 2.4 million unaffiliated with a party, according to state election data.

Murphy voted on Oct. 23, the first day of early in-person voting, in Long Branch. Ciattarelli also took advantage early voting on Oct. 29, casting his ballot in Hillsborough. 

Adams Flexes Union Support

Adams, the Brooklyn borough president and former police officer,  held an election-eve rally outside of City Hall. He appeared with the heads of District Council 37, the local building-services affiliate of the Service Employees International Union and the Hotel Trades Council, whose unions collectively represent hundreds of thousands of New Yorkers. It was a stop in the waning hours of a campaign against Republican nominee Curtis Sliwa that he is expected to win convincingly. Still, both Adams and his union supporters emphasized that a strong showing in Tuesday’s race will help him establish a governing mandate.

“When I hear about your labor contracts, I think of my labor contract. When I hear about your pensions, I think about my pension. When I hear about your health care, I think about my health care,” Adams said at the rally. 

Sabato Says Virginia Leans GOP; N.J. Votes Early: Election Update

If elected, he will immediately have to handle contract negotiations with DC 37, the city’s largest public employee union, whose contract expired in May. Adams suggested he would have their back on those matters, while urging supporters to get out to the polls. “We are finally going to have someone that understands what you are going through becoming your mayor.”

Atlanta’s Political Future

Atlanta’s mayoral race is shaping up as a fight for the future of Black political power in Georgia’s biggest city.

This booming southern metropolis has been controlled by Black politicians for more than 45 years. That’s unlikely to change, since the two candidates who are far ahead in recent polls are both Black. But old alliances are changing, and the crowded race is seen as a referendum on Atlanta’s political past and a precursor of who will hold power in the future. 

McAuliffe’s Bad News 

McAuliffe, the former Democratic National Committee chair, has repeatedly complained that the delay in passing the infrastructure bill and Biden’s Build Back Better bill were hurting his race.

While some Democrats had hoped to at least be able to announce a framework on the deal before the election, holdout Senator Joe Manchin held a news conference Monday afternoon to say that he has still not decided whether he’ll support the bill.

In late September, McAuliffe chided Democrats at a debate over the delay.

“They got to stop their little chitty-chat up there, and it is time for them to pass it,” he said. “Let’s get this infrastructure bill passed for America.”

Democratic strategists say it’s unlikely passage of the bill would help McAuliffe at this point, much less a framework, but further delay certainly doesn’t help with low Democratic enthusiasm.

Election-Eve Poll in New Jersey

Murphy led Ciattarelli, 50% to 42%, in the Rutgers-Eagleton poll released Monday. The margin between the two candidates in recent polls was between six and 11 points.

“The big picture points to a sizable margin for Murphy that – despite narrowing throughout the campaign – will be difficult for Ciattarelli to overcome in the final days,” Ashley Koning, an assistant research professor and director of the Eagleton Center for Public Interest Polling at Rutgers University in New Brunswick, said in a statement.

In the Oct. 21-27 Rutgers-Eagleton poll of 901 registered voters, half of New Jerseyans had a favorable view of the governor, while 35% had an unfavorable one. For Ciattarelli, 33% of respondents had a favorable impression and 34% had an unfavorable view. About 13% didn’t know who Ciattarelli was.

Almost half of respondents identified themselves as moderate, with 25% saying they are liberal and 24% saying they are conservative.

The poll had a margin of error of plus or minus 4.1 percentage points.

Ohio Special Election

Biden waded into a special congressional election in Ohio on the eve of Tuesday’s voting, backing Democrat Allison Russo over her Republican opponent who was endorsed by former President Donald Trump in a district that favors Republicans.

“She’s the kind of leader we need as we build back an economy that creates good-paying jobs, delivers more affordable health care, and puts middle-class families first,” Biden said in a statement provided by Russo’s campaign on Monday.

Former Vice President Mike Pence campaigned in the 15th District on Sunday for Republican Mike Carey, a coal industry consultant who won the GOP nomination in a crowded field to replace retired Representative Steve Stivers, after Trump endorsed him and did two tele-rallies for him.

Trump Inserts Himself Into Virginia Race, Again

McAuliffe has worked hard to make the Virginia race all about Donald Trump, who is unpopular with the suburban voters who will determine this election.

Once again, Trump has obliged him.

On Monday morning, the former president released a statement, which quickly circulated on social media, endorsing Youngkin for a seventh time and attacking McAuliffe as a “low-life politician.”

The statement appeared to be a response to an ad from the anti-Trump Lincoln Project that tried to goad Trump into getting involved by arguing that Youngkin was not supporting him strongly enough.

McAuliffe pounced, releasing a 211-word statement with the name Trump in it 10 times -- twice as many times as it referenced Youngkin himself.

Trump will also hold an 8 p.m. tele-rally Monday in support of Youngkin.

Ciattarelli Hits the Jersey Diners

On Monday, Ciattarelli had eight stops on his itinerary, including the landmark Tick Tock Diner in Clifton. The candidate will finish Monday with a get-ou-the-vote rally at the Basilone Statue in Raritan.

Murphy was scheduled to hold a virus briefing Monday afternoon in Trenton. His campaign events included two national television appearances and an evening rally in South Orange.

McAuliffe, Youngkin Barnstorm Virginia 

In a sign of the close race for Virginia governor, McAuliffe and Youngkin will follow similar itineraries on Monday.

McAuliffe, who is seeking a second non-consecutive term as governor, and Youngkin, the former co-CEO of the Carlyle Group, will both hold last-minute rallies in Roanoke, Virginia Beach, Richmond and northern Virginia.

The final polls have shown McAuliffe’s once-solid lead evaporate, with the race essentially tied and some polls showing Youngkin ahead for the first time.

In October, McAuliffe said Biden’s low approval ratings were causing “headwinds” in the race, but in an interview with Chuck Todd on NBC’s “Meet the Press” on Sunday, McAuliffe said national political issues were not a problem.

“When I travel around Virginia, they’re not asking about what’s going on in Washington,” he said. “What I get asked about everyday, Chuck, is Covid.”

At a previous rally for Youngkin that Trump also phoned into, attendees gave the Pledge of Allegiance to a flag that was at the Jan. 6 riot at the Capitol.

Youngkin, who has tried to maintain a delicate balance between Trump’s supporters and suburban voters who dislike him, called the pledge “weird and wrong.”

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