U.S. Sees Up to Six Major Atlantic Hurricanes Forming This Year

(Bloomberg) -- The second major forecaster in two days is predicting the worst Atlantic hurricane season since the year that spawned deadly Katrina.

Warm water, a strong West African monsoon and the effects of larger weather systems will likely cause 19 to 25 storms to get a name, including the nine that have already formed, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration said. That’s short of the record tally of 28 in 2005, but the season will be “extremely active,” NOAA said in a statement. The Atlantic may generate as many as six major hurricanes.

“We have never forecast up to 25 named storms,” said Gerry Bell, lead seasonal forecaster with NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center in Maryland. “The previous maximum was 21 in 2005. At that time 21 was the highest we had ever seen.”

Even though NOAA is forecasting more storms for 2020 than it did in 2005, predictive models weren’t as accurate back then, Bell said. This year’s total isn’t likely to be a record, he said.

Still, the outlook shows just how powerful the Atlantic hurricane season could become, Bell said.

Nine storms have already formed in 2020 and five have hit the U.S., including Hurricane Isaias, which knocked out power throughout the Northeast earlier this week. This is a record fast start, said Louis Uccellini, director of the National Weather Service.

By the time the season ends in November, the Atlantic will likely have produced 7 to 11 hurricanes and 3 to 6 major systems with winds of 111 miles (179 kilometers) per hour, NOAA said. In May, the U.S. called for 13 to 19 systems. An average year produces 12, and a storm gets a name when its winds reach tropical-storm strength of 39 mph.

The peak of the season, from late August through September, still lies ahead. Many of the early-season storms were weak this year, unlike in 2005, when two major hurricanes had already formed at this point.

Some skeptics have said the storm numbers have increased because of a change of weather service policy. That’s not true, Uccellini said.

“We have not changed the criteria of actually naming storms, we just have better ways of identifying them,” he said.

On Wednesday, Colorado State University also boosted its seasonal outlook, predicting 24 named storms.

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