U.S. New-Home Sales Tumble to Lowest in Almost Two Years

(Bloomberg) -- U.S. purchases of new homes fell more than estimated in September to the weakest pace since December 2016, adding to signs that a lack of affordability is crimping demand, according to government data Wednesday.

Key Takeaways

The results fell below all forecasts in Bloomberg’s survey of economists and showed downward revisions for the prior three months, signaling that the market ended the quarter on a weak note.

A gauge of homebuilder stocks erased gains and was down 1 percent as of 1 p.m. in New York, bringing its decline this year to 35 percent.

Sales fell in three of four regions, the report showed. A 1.5 percent decline in the South, the nation’s largest region, may reflect the impact of Hurricane Florence across North Carolina and South Carolina in mid-September. Previously released data on housing starts and sales of existing homes also showed the storm affected activity in the region.

The results are the latest signs that the housing market is losing momentum. While a strong job market and healthier finances signal demand is unlikely to suddenly collapse, potential buyers are increasingly constrained by rising property prices, higher mortgage rates and a scarcity of affordable listings.

New-home purchases are tabulated when contracts get signed, and account for about 10 percent of the market. They’re considered a timelier barometer than purchases of previously owned homes, which are calculated when contracts close. Figures from the National Association of Realtors last week showed existing home sales fell in September to the weakest pace in almost three years.

Economist’s View

“By nearly all accounts, the slide in new home sales appears to be demand-driven and is not due to supply constraints,” Mark Vitner, a senior economist at Wells Fargo & Co., wrote in a note. “As such, single-family starts will likely fall further in coming months.”

Other Details

• The decline in purchases was led by a 40.6 percent plunge in the Northeast to the lowest level since April 2015 and 12 percent drop in the West
• Report showed 90 percent confidence that the change in sales last month ranged from a 17.6 percent drop to a 6.6 percent rise, underscoring the volatility of the data
• Number of new houses on the market rose to 327,000 as of the end of last month, the most since January 2009, from 318,000
• Data released jointly by the Census Bureau and Department of Housing and Urban Development in Washington

--With assistance from Kristy Scheuble and Sophie Caronello.

To contact the reporter on this story: Shobhana Chandra in Washington at schandra1@bloomberg.net

To contact the editors responsible for this story: Scott Lanman at slanman@bloomberg.net, Jeff Kearns

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