Goldman Doubles Estimate for Chance of U.S. Tariffs on EU Cars

(Bloomberg) -- The probability of the U.S. imposing new tariffs on cars made in the European Union is 40%, double a previous estimate, according to Goldman Sachs Group Inc.

Even after President Donald Trump extended a deadline on the fees from May to November to enable talks, that’s still probably too short a timescale to reach a comprehensive deal, especially as EU negotiating procedures usually last several years, Goldman economists including Sven Jari Stehn wrote in a report. Shares of European carmakers and suppliers pared earlier gains Thursday that were prompted by an auto-industry stimulus package in China.

The EU is just one of the markets where Trump is pushing for new U.S. trade deals. On Thursday, he reiterated a threat to expand new tariffs on Chinese goods to another $300 billion of products, following a tweet late Wednesday that separate talks with Mexico aren’t making enough progress.

BMW AG shares traded down 0.1% as of 12:18 p.m. in Frankfurt after rising as much as 0.4%, while Daimler AG, the maker of Mercedes-Benz autos, pared its gain to 0.2% from 0.6%. Renault SA fell 6.8% in Paris following suitor Fiat Chrysler Automobiles NV’s withdrawal of a merger proposal, while the Italian-American company’s stock was little changed.

--With assistance from Sid Verma.

To contact the reporter on this story: Tom Lavell in Frankfurt at tlavell@bloomberg.net

To contact the editors responsible for this story: Beth Mellor at bmellor@bloomberg.net, Paul Jarvis, John Viljoen

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