U.S. Factory Output Stalled in March as Auto Production Dropped

(Bloomberg) -- U.S. factory production stalled in March as motor-vehicle output declined, adding to signs of headwinds for manufacturing and economic growth around the world.

Manufacturing output was unchanged from February after falling a revised 0.3 percent, Federal Reserve data showed Tuesday. That compared with the median estimate for a 0.1 percent increase in Bloomberg’s survey of economists. Total industrial production, which also includes mines and utilities, fell 0.1 percent, also trailing forecasts for a gain and following a 0.1 percent advance.

Key Insights

• The data signal further manufacturing softness as producers cope with an inventory buildup, continuing uncertainty around trade and a dimming global growth outlook. The International Monetary Fund last week cut its forecast for the world economy to the weakest level since the financial crisis, though the Fed’s patient approach to raising interest rates should support U.S. expansion.
• Production of motor vehicles and parts decreased 2.5 percent, the second decline in three months, to the lowest level since July. Excluding the sector, manufacturing output rose 0.2 percent after a 0.5 percent decline the prior month, with gains in industries including primary metals, computers and electronics and aerospace and other transportation equipment.
• Manufacturing output fell at a 1.1 percent annual rate in the first quarter, the worst performance since late 2017.
• The data echo some other reports on the sector. Regional Fed surveys for New York and Philadelphia have broadly been cooling in recent months.

What Bloomberg’s Economists Say

“Tepid consumer and business demand, which pervaded much of the first quarter, is forestalling meaningful progress on inventory rebalancing efforts. As a result, sagging factory production is likely to extend its soft patch into at least the start of the second quarter.”
-- Carl Riccadonna and Yelena Shulyatyeva, economists
Click here for the full note.

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• Capacity utilization, measuring the amount of a plant that is in use, fell to 78.8 percent, the lowest since July, from 79 percent.
• Utility output rose 0.2 percent after advancing 3.7 percent the prior month. Mining production fell 0.8 percent, while oil and gas well drilling rose 0.3 percent.
• Machinery production rose 0.5 percent, while output of consumer goods fell 0.2 percent, and business-equipment production rose 0.4 percent.
• The Fed’s monthly data are volatile and often get revised. Manufacturing, which makes up about 75 percent of total industrial production, accounts for about 12 percent of the U.S. economy.

--With assistance from Jordan Yadoo.

To contact the reporter on this story: Reade Pickert in Washington at epickert@bloomberg.net

To contact the editors responsible for this story: Scott Lanman at slanman@bloomberg.net, Jeff Kearns

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