U.S. Economy Grew at Unrevised 3.5% Pace in Third Quarter

(Bloomberg) -- The U.S. economy remained on a solid footing in the third quarter, matching previously reported results, as stronger business investment and a bigger boost from inventories cushioned a trade drag that matched the worst since 1984.

Inflation-adjusted gross domestic product grew at an unrevised 3.5 percent annualized rate, Commerce Department data showed Wednesday, in line with the median forecast in a Bloomberg survey. Household spending, which accounts for about 70 percent of the economy, grew 3.6 percent, revised from 4 percent, on weaker durable goods purchases.

Key Insights

• The biggest change from the prior report on GDP, the value of all goods and services produced in the nation, came from stronger business investment, while most other categories were in line with earlier readings.
• Nonresidential fixed investment -- which includes spending on equipment, structures and intellectual property - grew 2.5 percent, revised from a 0.8 percent gain. Economists are monitoring such spending because, along with consumer purchases, it was a main driver of growth in the first half.
• Combined with a 4.2 percent pace of GDP growth in the April to June period, the results capped the best back-to-back quarters since 2014. At the same time, growth is projected to moderate this quarter.
• Risks to the outlook include an escalating trade war with China, cooling global demand and rising borrowing costs, while the boost from President Donald Trump’s tax cuts is expected to wane next year.
• The report also provided a first glimpse of some key data: Corporate pretax earnings rose 10.3 percent from a year earlier, the most in six years, after a 7.3 percent advance. Gross domestic income rose 4 percent, the most since 2014.

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• Equipment spending was revised up to a 3.5 percent rise from a 0.4 percent gain, while investment in structures showed a 1.7 percent drop compared with a previously reported decline of 7.9 percent.
• Net exports subtracted 1.91 percentage point from growth, while inventories provided a 2.27 point boost.
• Stripping out the volatile components of trade and inventories, so-called final sales to domestic purchasers climbed at an unrevised 3.1 percent pace.
• Housing still posted a third consecutive drag on GDP growth and reaffirmed that the industry has entered a broad slowdown. Residential investment fell 2.6 percent, compared with an initially reported contraction of 4 percent.
• Inflation rose an unrevised 1.7 percent. The Federal Reserve’s goal is 2 percent based on its preferred gauge tracking personal consumption expenditures. Excluding food and energy, the Fed’s preferred price index advanced 1.5 percent, revised from 1.6 percent.
• Government spending increased at a 2.6 percent rate, revised from 3.3 percent. That added 0.44 point to growth.
• GDP report is the second of three estimates for the quarter; the third is due in December as more data become available.

--With assistance from Chris Middleton.

To contact the reporter on this story: Shobhana Chandra in Washington at schandra1@bloomberg.net

To contact the editors responsible for this story: Scott Lanman at slanman@bloomberg.net, Jeff Kearns

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