U.S. Border Policy Becomes 2020 Dividing Line: Balance of Power

(Bloomberg) --

When it comes to coping with the wave of migration at the southern U.S. border, Donald Trump and the Democrats trying to unseat him are squarely on opposite sides of the fence.

Elizabeth Warren yesterday unveiled a plan to “decriminalize” immigration violations, in sharp contrast to Trump’s hard-line stance.

Warren rolled out her policy before a town hall in Wisconsin – a presidential battleground state – where the Massachusetts senator and several of her rivals for the Democratic nomination detailed their immigration visions to a Hispanic audience.

With federal officials expected to launch immigration raids this weekend across the U.S., the Democratic candidates are striving to appeal to Hispanic voters and capitalize on opposition to the administration’s approach, which resonates with Trump's base.

Trump suffered a setback yesterday when he capitulated on his effort to add a citizenship question to the 2020 census that opponents said was meant to increase the political power of Republicans by skewing the survey’s results to favor white voters. Undercounting non-citizens would dilute the political power of areas home to many such people, as the results of the once-a-decade questionnaire are used to re-draw congressional districts and allocate billions in federal funds.

It’s too soon to tell how much the border debate will determine whether Trump wins a second term. But, with both the president and his potential opponents hardening their positions, the outcome could have real consequences for those in the U.S. illegally.

Global Headlines

Pollution push | German Chancellor Angela Merkel’s plan to make it more costly to pollute will move forward today with new proposals for levies on the transport and heating industries. In France, President Emmanuel Macron’s proposed bank to combat climate change won the endorsement of European Commission president-designate Ursula von der Leyen. The efforts coincide with U.K. Prime Minister Theresa May’s focus on tackling climate change during her final weeks in power.

Gulf tensions | Iran’s decision to ramp up uranium enrichment is prompting debate over whether the U.S. should – or even can – invoke a penalty that negotiators built into the 2015 nuclear agreement: re-institution of international sanctions. Administration hard-liners are pushing that approach, even though the U.S. has abandoned the accord. Deeper sanctions would shred what’s left of European Union-led efforts to keep the deal alive as tensions rise with Iran over recent incidents involving oil tankers in the Persian Gulf.

Lock the vote | The Kremlin is considering changing parliamentary election rules to maintain the United Russia party’s two-thirds constitutional majority, ahead of possible moves to extend President Vladimir Putin’s grip on power after his term ends in 2024. As Ilya Arkhipov and Henry Meyer exclusively report, it may cut the share of seats won via party lists to 25% from half now, with the rest chosen in local districts. United Russia is so unpopular that many pro-Kremlin candidates prefer to run as nominal independents.

‘Nothing to lose’ | Indonesian President Joko Widodo vowed to implement measures to attract foreign investment as he seeks to unleash the potential of Southeast Asia’s biggest economy during his second term. Emboldened by a landslide election win in April, the president told Bloomberg he’d lower corporate taxes, ease stringent labor laws and lift curbs on foreign ownership. The country’s economy grew about 5% in recent years, well short of the 7% Jokowi targeted ahead of his first term.

Coup attempt | Sudan’s security forces are on high alert after foiling a purported coup attempt, the latest upheaval to strike the North African nation since long-time dictator Omar al-Bashir was ousted in April. As Mohammed Alamin reports, the alleged bid to overthrow the military council will delay plans for a power-sharing deal with the main opposition group and threatens to extend months of bloody upheaval.

What to Watch

• Turkey says it started receiving the first major cargo of a Russian missile-defense system that has drawn the threat of U.S. sanctions over its potential to undermine NATO’s military capabilities.
• Trump is complaining that China hasn’t made good on a promise to its U.S. agricultural purchases, raising questions about efforts to restart trade talks.
• House Speaker Nancy Pelosi says Congress should act this month to raise the debt ceiling, but it’s not clear that a deal is possible before in that time frame.
• Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro is weighing the nomination of his lawmaker son Eduardo as ambassador to the U.S. as he seeks to strengthen ties with Trump.

And finally... Governments across Asia are rejecting garbage imports, setting the stage for a bottleneck that will make it increasingly difficult for developed countries to export their unwanted refuse. Ann Koh and Anuradha Raghu take a closer look at new technologies and changes in social behaviors that companies and governments are testing to tackle a mountain of human-generated waste that’s forecast to grow to 3.4 billion tons a year by 2050.

--With assistance from Anthony Halpin and Ruth Pollard.

To contact the editor responsible for this story: Michael Winfrey at mwinfrey@bloomberg.net

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