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Turkey and Greece Need Angela Merkel’s Intervention

Turkey and Greece Need Angela Merkel’s Intervention

A rare opportunity to calm the troubled waters of the Eastern Mediterranean arose this week, with Turkey putting on hold a controversial seismic survey in an area contested by Greece. Its research vessel will stay in the port of Antalya for now, giving the two countries time to seek a diplomatic solution.

Exactly how much time is unclear, but a spokesman for President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said Ankara was ready for comprehensive negotiations with Athens, “without preconditions.”

Some in Greece may question the sincerity of the offer, which comes shortly after Erdogan inflamed Greek sensibilities by converting the iconic Hagia Sophia museum into a mosque. But there is no surer way to find out than to start talking.

Given the deep antagonism between the two sides, any negotiations between them will require mediation. Their dispute over the waters and hydrocarbon resources of the Eastern Mediterranean is only the latest chapter in a long history of hostility. In other circumstances, the U.S. would play that role: After all, Turkey and Greece are both members of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization. The last time they came close to war, over uninhabited Aegean islets in 1996, President Bill Clinton defused the crisis

But Erdogan’s commitment to NATO is questionable at best, and in any case the Trump administration has no aptitude for conflict resolution.

The most logical alternative as honest broker between Ankara and Athens is Berlin. Germany is a vital trading partner for both countries, and its presidency of the Europe Union gives it even greater diplomatic weight. The Turks and Greeks have chafed at what they regard as German high-handedness in bilateral relations, but when Chancellor Angela Merkel speaks, they tend to listen.

As indeed they did last week, when she called Erdogan and Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis and talked them down from a possible naval confrontation in the Aegean Sea. Those conversations informed Turkey’s decision to hold back the survey mission and give diplomacy more time.

Germany enjoys considerable credibility with other countries that have claims on the Eastern Mediterranean, such as Cyprus, Israel and Egypt. And its lack of involvement in the Libyan civil war is also an advantage. 

The only other major country that has similar qualifications as a mediator is Britain, which is a major trading partner for Turkey and Greece, and has good relations with Israel and Egypt. It is also a party, alongside Turkey and Greece, to the peace talks in Cyprus. But Prime Minister Boris Johnson has shown little appetite for a larger role in the Eastern Mediterranean.

Having got their attention, Merkel should press Erdogan and Mitsotakis to commit to high-level talks covering the full range of their disagreements in the Eastern Mediterranean. All of them stem from differences in opinion over a fundamental question of maritime jurisdiction: How far into the sea do the territorial and economic claims of a littoral state go?

The United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea allows a country territorial claims up to 12 nautical miles, and an exclusive economic zone up to 200 nautical miles from its coastline. But there is much debate over what constitutes a coastline: Should it be measured from the Greek mainland, or from each of its islands, some of which are within sight of the Turkish coast?

Greece is a signatory to the UN convention, but Turkey is not. For any honest broker, this difference augurs for long and testy negotiations. Angela Merkel has no time to waste.

This column does not necessarily reflect the opinion of the editorial board or Bloomberg LP and its owners.

Bobby Ghosh is a Bloomberg Opinion columnist. He writes on foreign affairs, with a special focus on the Middle East and the wider Islamic world.

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