Titan Q4 Review: Brokerages Expect Covid-19 Curbs To Impact Near-Term Sales
Gold bangles sit on display inside a Titan Co. Tanishq jewelry store in Mumbai, India. (Photographer: Dhiraj Singh/Bloomberg)

Titan Q4 Review: Brokerages Expect Covid-19 Curbs To Impact Near-Term Sales

Most analysts expect the fresh Covid-19 restrictions to impact Titan Co.’s sales in the near term.

“Given the ongoing lockdown/restrictions across India, we have cut our FY22 EPS estimate by 12.2%,” Motilal Oswal said in a report. Prabhudas Lilladher, too, said the near-term outlook looks hazy but remains optimistic about the jewellery division’s growth.

The owner of Tanishq brand saw sales of its mainstay jewellery segment, accounting for 88% of total revenue, rise 71% year-on-year to Rs 6,678 crore in the quarter ended March. CaratLane, which sells jewellery online and offline, ended the period with a profit before tax of Rs 10 crore.

Net profit and revenue of the country’s largest branded jewellery maker surged over the year earlier, but margin contracted.

Shares of Titan fell as much as 2.4% to Rs 1,471 apiece before paring losses, compared with a 0.84% drop in the NSE Nifty 50 index.

Of the 32 analysts tracking Titan, 16 recommend a ‘buy’, 10 suggest a ‘hold’ and six have a ‘sell’ rating on the stock, according to Bloomberg data.

Also read: Titan Q4 Results: Profit Surges 66%, Margin Contracts

Here’s what brokerages have to say about Titan’s fourth-quarter results...

CLSA

  • Maintain ‘sell’ with target price of Rs 1,506.30 apiece.

  • Sales growth in near-term uncertain.

  • Sees a focussed approach to improve profitability with action in watches and eyewear, a war on waste initiatives and monetisation of non-core businesses.

  • Easing gold prices from peak and weaker sales mix could hurt its margin delivery.

Prabhudas Lilladher

  • Maintains ‘accumulate’ with a target price of Rs 1,663 apiece.

  • Near-term outlook looks hazy with second Covid wave leading to 50% store closures.

  • Postponement of weddings and deferment of discretionary expenses.

  • Optimistic about market share gain, increase in studded jewellery contribution, and increase in online and omnichannel sales.

  • Expects slow expansion in Jewellery margin given focus on growth and market share gain.

Emkay

  • Maintains ‘buy’ with a target price of Rs 1,725 apiece.

  • Expects near-term impact due to Covid-19 restrictions.

  • Strong recovery in October-March FY21 indicates pent-up demand and market share gains.

  • Initiatives to accelerate growth in the wedding segment may offset most of the loss in sales ahead.

  • Titan remains preferred pick in discretionary, offering a faster growth outlook.

Goldman Sachs

  • Maintains ‘sell’ with a target price of Rs 1,506.30 apiece.

  • Lower-than-expected impact from Covid-19 disruptions.

  • Higher-than-expected market share gain.

  • Faster-than-expected growth in CaratLane.

Motilal Oswal

  • Maintains ‘buy’ with a target price of Rs 1,785 apiece.

  • Unlike other discretionary peers, Titan can claw back some of this lost demand.

  • It’s medium- to long-term earnings growth opportunity is best-of-breed.

  • There is a strong growth runway given Titan’s market share of less than 10% and the continuing struggles of unorganised and other organised peers.

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