Three Chip Gauges Hint at Tech Turnaround That May Help Asia
Three Chip Gauges Hint at Tech Turnaround That May Help Asia
(Bloomberg) -- A slump in tech demand that weighed on the global economy is showing signs of a turnaround, according to a trio of indicators tracking the semiconductor industry.
Along with the phase-one U.S.-China trade deal, a tech pickup would be a tailwind for export-orientated economies like South Korea and Taiwan -- key suppliers of chips -- and would ripple through supply chains across Asia.
Semiconductor sales serve as a key barometer of worldwide tech strength due to their use in devices from smartphones and laptops to televisions and cars. A sustained turnaround would be a fillip for nations like Korea, which is headed for its feeblest full-year expansion since the global financial crisis.
Here are three indicators shedding light on the strength of global demand for semiconductors.
Chip Equipment
Expanding chip-making capacity is one of the clearest leading indicators of chip output to come. The latest data on North America chip-equipment shipments support the view that semiconductor sales will continue to rise after bottoming in March. The November figure from SEMI, a global association of chip makers, marks the highest year-on-year gain since May 2018.
“This improvement in equipment billings meets industry expectations for a stronger close to 2019,” Ajit Manocha, president and CEO of SEMI, said in a statement released Friday.
Chip Prices
Prices have yet to pick up. The price tags on a range of memory chips available from inSpectrum aren’t increasing, but declines have eased as prices stabilize. That means while shipments have returned to pre-2018 levels, current demand still isn’t as strong for products like dynamic random access memory, one of the most sought-after types of chips in the world.
“The reason for the falling prices is that there is simply too much memory in the market,” said Mike Howard, vice president of memory research at French researcher Yole Developpement. “Customers are willing to buy DRAM, but only at reduced prices. The one silver lining to the current situation is that suppliers’ inventories have really started to fall.”
Chip Inventories
Falling stockpiles of chips show that demand is outstripping supply. Inventories of semiconductors stored in South Korea, which supplies more than two thirds of the global DRAM market, peaked in July and have since fallen 15% through October, according to the national statistics office.
South Korea’s chip inventory tends to rise and fall inversely to global semiconductor sales. The stockpiles slid 16% in September from the previous month for the biggest drop since June 2017. Worldwide chip sales rose 3.4% in the same four-week span, the largest gain since August 2017, according to the Semiconductor Industry Association.
“I think we’ve bottomed and we’re picking up now again,” said S&P’s Asia-Pacific chief economist Shaun Roache. “The big factor for the chip industry and electronics globally is going to be capex. Our view is that almost everywhere we’ve probably passed the worst in terms of investment from last year.”
What Bloomberg’s Economist Says
“A revival in global tech demand should help bolster business investment and consumer sentiment -- painting a brighter picture for Asia’s trade-oriented economies. Reduced trade uncertainty resulting from the U.S. and China’s ‘phase one’ deal should add further support.“
--Justin Jimenez, Bloomberg Economics
--With assistance from Michelle Seoh.
To contact the reporter on this story: Sam Kim in Seoul at skim609@bloomberg.net
To contact the editors responsible for this story: Malcolm Scott at mscott23@bloomberg.net, Jiyeun Lee, Paul Jackson
©2019 Bloomberg L.P.