Thinkpad: The Diwali (W)rap
Thinkpad: This Diwali we (w)rap out some of the events since last year.
Happy Diwali.
Hope you are having a socially distanced festive weekend.
Thinkpad agonised a lot over what the Diwali edition should hold. Should we, like market mavens, predict what the next year will hold, perhaps only to be proven wrong. Nah. We’ll leave the predictions game to the experts. You can find the Sensex / Nifty targets from Goldman Sachs and earnings growth estimates from Morgan Stanley on BQ and if you are looking for stock picks, there’s a range of those here.
We could make a theme out of the relatively more cheery spirits in the economy these days. Indeed, spirits are looking up and the economy may return to growth in the third quarter after entering a technical recession with two quarters of negative growth. The large stash of precautionary savings built up during the early months of Covid may help if confidence returns. But you’ve already (hopefully) read the BQ coverage on that.
We can also look back and turn to lessons we learnt since last Diwali. Niraj Shah beat us to that.
So we decided to do a small Diwali (w)rap of everything that’s been going on. Here goes:
♫ Last Diwali the economy was already looking weak...
The Government disagreed...the RBI governor promised things aren’t that bleak...
Then came DHFL and Yes Bank...
Made it look like the financial sector would tank...
The budget for the year was all over the place...
Along came Corona, a smack in the face...
The Government locked us down...
The GDP graph made us frown...
Government needed more cash...
To pull the economy out of this hash...
Market threw up its hands and said ‘humse na ho payega’...
RBI said ‘apna time aa gaya’...
As another Diwali rolls around...
Much uncertainty still to be found ...
But equity markets are soaring to new heights...
Though the fiscal deficit and inflation are giving bond markets a fright ....
Still, we won’t give up without a fight...
Wish you all a very happy Festival of Lights. ♫