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There’s an 18% Chance Your Bartender Won’t Serve Drinks in 2020

There’s an 18% Chance Your Bartender Won’t Serve Drinks in 2020

(Bloomberg) -- Bartenders, derrick operators and dancers in the U.S. are among those most likely to change occupations, according to newly released employment projections from the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

About 12.9% of bartenders will find another line of work annually through 2028, while 4.7% will abandon the labor force entirely, according to the report. That’s close to a projected 18% annual turnover for the mixologist profession.

Job satisfaction is even worse for forest and conservation workers, where more than one-in-six are expected to change occupations every year through 2028. Roustabouts and logging equipment operators also close behind.

There’s an 18% Chance Your Bartender Won’t Serve Drinks in 2020

Part of the reason they may opt out is the danger element. Both the extraction and construction occupational group and transportation and material moving group accounted for 47 percent of worker deaths in 2017, according to a separate Labor Department report.

Farm equipment operators are expected to leave the profession at a rate of 12.4% per year through 2028. There were 258 fatalities among farmers, ranchers and other agricultural managers in the U.S. in 2017.

Jobs that require a high rate of physicality also tend to have high turnover, the study found. More than one-in-10 dancers, lifeguards, fitness trainers and aerobics instructors are expected to change occupations every year.

Perhaps unsurprisingly, professions which require considerable education and are highly compensated are the least likely to see defections. Dentists, doctors and lawyers are more likely to retire from the labor force completely than change jobs.

Even these professions will undergo labor churn. In the case of surgeons, the field is only expected to grow by about 50 people per year over the next decade. But there will be about 1,100 separations; about 600 from those exiting the labor force and about 500 from occupational transfers. Combined with the projected growth, this yields about 1,200 annual average openings in the occupation with a 2018 employment level of 38,200.

To contact the reporter on this story: Alex Tanzi in Washington at atanzi@bloomberg.net

To contact the editors responsible for this story: Margaret Collins at mcollins45@bloomberg.net, Virginia Van Natta, Vince Golle

©2019 Bloomberg L.P.