Shell Sees Oil Sales Volume, Margins Stable in First Quarter

(Bloomberg) -- Royal Dutch Shell Plc said it doesn’t expect the coronavirus to have a significant effect on overall demand for its oil products in the first quarter.

While the company warned that the pandemic was creating major uncertainties around oil prices and boosting volatility, it experienced a “relatively minor” impact in the first two months of the year and expects sales volumes and margins for the quarter to be relatively unscathed.

“Marketing margins in the first quarter are expected to remain strong, as the impact on demand from COVID-19 is not expected to be significant at the Shell group level,” the company said in a statement.

Oil-products sales volumes are seen at 6 million to 7 million barrels a day for the period, compared with 6.5 million barrels a day reported a year earlier. First-quarter upstream oil and gas production is estimated at 2.65 million to 2.72 million barrels of oil equivalent a day, with margins affected by the “weak environment,” Shell said.

Shell’s trading update shows that the impact of the coronavirus on oil demand only really accelerated in March, meaning the first quarter will probably be “materially better” than subsequent earnings periods this year, RBC Capital Markets said in a note.

The company’s B shares rose as much as 5% to 1325.2 pence as of 8:14 a.m. in London.

Survival Measures

Major oil companies have already taken big steps to adapt to the massive economic impact of the deadly pandemic. Shell canceled the next tranche of its share buyback program, cut capital expenditure and pulled out of a liquefied natural gas project. Even that may not be enough to preserve the company’s dividend as oil prices plunge, according to analysts at Citigroup Inc.

“We think Shell has the balance sheet capacity and ability to cut capex to survive in the current environment without a significant cut to dividends, but if this outlook was to last for more than 9 to 12 months, we would expect a cut,” RBC analyst Biraj Borkhataria said in the note.

Following changes in oil-price assumptions for 2020, Shell expects post-tax impairment charges of $400 million to $800 million for the quarter. The company has a new $12 billion revolving credit-line commitment, and sees available liquidity rising to more than $40 billion from $30 billion.

Trading and optimization in integrated gas is expected to be in line with the fourth quarter of 2019, Shell said. Last year was one of the strongest in recent memory for trading of the fuel. While the company doesn’t provide details on how much money that division makes, it can provide a silver lining when economic conditions are weak.

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