S. Africa Growth May Pick Up Faster Than Expected, Bank Says
S. Africa Growth Could Pick Up Faster Than Expected, SARB Says
(Bloomberg) -- South Africa’s economic growth could pick up faster than forecast if the right structural reforms are implemented, the Reserve Bank said.
That means the economy could expand faster than the 2 percent for 2020 the central bank projected last month, a rate it hasn’t exceeded since 2013. While last year’s 1.3 percent advance beat predictions, this doesn’t equate to a good performance, the Reserve Bank said in its six-monthly Monetary Policy Review released Tuesday in the capital, Pretoria.
Cyril Ramaphosa replacing Jacob Zuma as head of the ruling party and president boosted sentiment and the currency on hopes of structural reforms in Africa’s most-industrialized economy. While Ramaphosa has since changed the cabinet to remove some Zuma appointees who were seen as compromised, overhauled the board of the state power utility and pledged to root out corruption, confidence indexes show business and investors now want to start seeing real reforms.
“The pickup in growth is not especially strong,” the central bank said. “This is mainly because, at this early stage, there is little clarity around the reform agenda and without specifics it is difficult to quantify growth responses.”
Junk Averted
Moody’s Investors Service last month removed the threat of a junk credit rating, citing the impact of political changes. Downgrade concerns could re-emerge if narrowing the nation’s budget deficit prove harder than the markets anticipate, the Reserve Bank said. That, and a current-account deficit that may widen more than expected, could put pressure on the rand, the bank said.
The currency has gained 9 percent since the December election of Ramaphosa as the African National Congress’s leader, helping to lower price pressures. Inflation slowed to an almost three-year low of 4 percent in February. The central bank forecast it will remain in the target band of 3 percent to 6 percent until at least the end of 2020, stabilizing at just more than 5 percent.
While current inflation is unusually low, recent developments in services prices and expectations “provide some evidence that positive price shocks, if properly managed, can engender permanently lower inflation,” the central bank said. The statistics agency will release data for March on April 18.
The Reserve Bank assumes electricity prices will rise 7.3 percent in 2019 and 8 percent in 2020. Its approach is to wait for an announcement from the energy regulator before adjusting inflation projections, Governor Lesetja Kganyago told a forum on the review.
“We hope sanity will prevail in terms of the increases granted,” he said.
The Monetary Policy Committee cut its benchmark repurchase rate to 6.5 percent last month. The possibility of higher global interest rates, and their effect on inflation through the exchange rate, mean the MPC is “not committing to a rate-cutting cycle.”
To contact the reporters on this story: Odwa Mjo in Johannesburg at omjo@bloomberg.net, Ntando Thukwana in Johannesburg at nthukwana@bloomberg.net.
To contact the editors responsible for this story: Rene Vollgraaff at rvollgraaff@bloomberg.net, Gordon Bell
©2018 Bloomberg L.P.
