Russian and Romanian Rate Decisions, Commodity Chaos: Eco Day

(Bloomberg) --

Welcome to Friday, Europe. Here’s the latest news and analysis from Bloomberg Economics to help take you through to the weekend:

• Global commodity trade plunged deeper into chaos as Chinese companies started walking away from purchase contracts because of the spread of the deadly coronavirus. For business people, the outbreak is producing a severe case of cognitive dissonance: Their eyes tell them things are bad, but economists say the epidemic will only slightly lower China’s growth this year. Bloomberg Economics offers an annotated chart to track the virus’s spread and early signs of impact
• The Bank of Russia may be gearing up for its sixth consecutive interest-rate cut this week after inflation slid further below target in January
• When Andrew Bailey replaces Mark Carney as Bank of England governor next month, he’ll find officials closely studying why inflation isn’t as strong as data suggest it should be
• Romania is unlikely to match this week’s surprise interest-rate hike by the Czech Republic as it looks past above-target inflation to maintain its almost two-year freeze on borrowing costs
• The European Union’s plan to impose a carbon tax at its border received backing from Poland, the only member that hasn’t fully signed on to its climate-neutrality pact
• EU Trade Commissioner Phil Hogan had a “useful and constructive” meeting in Washington with his U.S. counterpart, according to an EU official
• The U.S. job market probably got off to a healthy start in 2020 but may also lose some of the luster President Donald Trump boasted about this week. January figures due Friday are projected to show U.S. employers added about 163,000 jobs -- less than last year’s 176,000 average
• The Federal Reserve and Treasury might be taking the first tentative steps toward the enhanced policy coordination some economists say will be needed to combat the next recession
• U.S. markets are “utterly and completely unprepared” for the possibility that inflation might pick up after years of subdued price gains, hedge fund manager Ken Griffin said
• India’s central bank returned to unconventional policy tools as it seeks to bring borrowing costs down and boost demand in an economy on course for its weakest expansion since 2009

To contact the reporter on this story: Michael S. Arnold in Singapore at marnold48@bloomberg.net

To contact the editors responsible for this story: Nasreen Seria at nseria@bloomberg.net, Karthikeyan Sundaram, Ashutosh Joshi

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