(The Bloomberg View) -- The latest crisis involving Russian aggression — the seizure of three Ukrainian naval ships and 24 sailors in the Sea of Azov – is classic Vladimir Putin. With his popularity at home collapsing almost as quickly as the price of the oil that keeps Russia’s economy afloat, an international incident that the Russian propaganda machine can blame on the enemy is just what he needed.
One question now is whether he will take this further, using more hybrid warfare to destabilize Ukraine, ramp up his proxy war in the nation’s east, or try another land grab, as he did in Crimea four years ago. Another question is what, if anything, the West will do to dissuade him.
So far, Europe and the U.S. seem inclined to do little. An emergency meeting of the United Nations Security Council went nowhere. The European Union is preoccupied with Brexit and other internal matters. The U.S. condemned Russia’s actions, but without much conviction.
The naval incident was predictable. Despite a 2003 bilateral agreement to share the Sea of Azov (to the northeast of the Black Sea), Russia claims much of it as territorial waters. By taking Crimea, it was able to build a bridge across the strait separating that peninsula from the Russian mainland. This lets it harass ships and block the Ukrainian ports that export agricultural goods and metal ores, without which Kiev’s economy would crumble.
Europe and the U.S. should insist that the Ukrainian ships and sailors be turned over immediately, and that Russia give up its illegal maritime claims. The message can be driven home in person at the G-20 meeting in Argentina this weekend. If Moscow refuses, there are options.
The U.S. and Europe could step up sanctions on Russian individuals and companies. (This is no pointless gesture: Sanctions to date have been far more biting than most people realize.) Germany could help by canceling the planned Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline from Russia — something it should have done already.
The U.S. approved shipping sophisticated “lethal defensive” armaments such as antitank weapons to Ukraine a year ago, but could put a new emphasis on arming and training the nation’s small navy, which lost its headquarters in Crimea in the Russian invasion. And NATO, which wisely included Ukraine in a large military exercise in September, needs to bolster its presence across the entire Black Sea to counter Russia’s huge naval buildup.
The U.S. Congress, which strongly supports Ukraine, should ensure that Trump doesn’t let it become a bargaining chip in negotiations with Putin over unrelated issues such as the Syrian war or nuclear nonproliferation agreements.
To encourage this support, Ukraine needs to act as well. Barring an actual Russian invasion, its parliament should lift the martial-law powers given to President Petro Poroshenko on Tuesday. Otherwise, the country’s unpopular leader may could conceivably act to postpone next year’s national election. The government also needs to grapple more effectively with endemic corruption. A well-governed Ukraine can ask more of its reluctant allies.
Regardless, the West should respond. If it chooses to let this go, Putin will be emboldened to push his aggressions not just in Ukraine but along his entire European border and beyond.
Editorials are written by the Bloomberg View editorial board.
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