RBI Needs To Go For Large Rate Cut In June, Says SBI Report
The Reserve Bank of India needs to go in for a larger rate cut, more than 25 basis points, in the next monetary policy review in June to reverse the current slowdown in the economy, said a research report by the State Bank of India.
The RBI had cut the key short term lending rate (repo) by 25 basis points each in its last two policy reviews and is slated to announce the next bi-monthly policy on June 6.
"Are we currently facing a quasi growth slowdown? The apparent nervousness is clearly reflected in the trends exhibited in key stock indices," said the SBI's research report 'Ecowrap'.
Initial trends in fourth quarter of 2018-19 exhibit overall decline in sectors such as telecom equipment and infra services; agro chemicals; petrochemicals; infrastructure developers and castings, it noted.
Also, pharmaceutical companies dependent on exports are likely to report poor growth numbers. In January-March 2018-19 quarter, of 384 companies more than 330 companies exhibited negative growth in mid-line and bottomline.
Perhaps, significantly depressed rural prices is disturbing rural income and weak demand is affecting the FMCG sector, the report said.
Overall, the report said, “We still believe the current slowdown could still be transitory, if proper policies are adopted in interregnum. For example, the high real interest rates are severely acting as a impediment to investment.”
To this end, "we are thus penciling a larger rate cut (in excess of 25 bps) by the RBI in the forthcoming policy".
However, such larger rate cuts will still not help fully but transmission will, said the Ecowrap.
The RBI should now ensure that asset and liability side of banks move in tandem and ensure repo rate is directly benchmarked to non-volatile bank liabilities/Current Account Savings Account that are mostly used for transaction purposes. Otherwise, we would continue to be constrained by lack of transmission, it added.