Qatar Emir Snubs Saudi Summit Invite as Gulf Rift Festers

(Bloomberg) -- The invitation from Saudi Arabia’s King Salman to his Qatari counterpart to attend Sunday’s gathering of Gulf monarchies, after 18 months as a regional pariah, wasn’t enough to build a bridge between the feuding countries.

The overture, rejected by Emir Tamim Bin Hamad Al Thani, came as Saudi Arabia sought to defuse pressure over the killing of a vocal critic in Istanbul. Saudi Arabia’s leadership is also under pressure from the U.S. Congress to mend regional divisions and end its war in Yemen.

But the rifts that prompted the Saudi-led boycott of Qatar in June 2017 haven’t gone away. If anything, they’ve deepened as the six-nation Gulf Cooperation Council meets.

“None of the parties to the dispute seem interested in a resolution or offering any significant concessions that could open a dialogue,” Graham Griffiths, a senior analyst at the Control Risks consultancy in Dubai, said.

Qatar’s ties with Shiite power Iran have strengthened, much to the dismay of the Sunni states that cited them when they initiated the embargo. Authorities in Doha, meanwhile, have brushed off accusations that they support terrorist groups, and have publicly done nothing to restrict the Al Jazeera television network whose coverage is a flashpoint.

The Saudi invitation had been extended as a formality, a Gulf official said, declining to be identified because the information wasn’t public. A Qatari minister of state represented the country at the summit, with the delegation seated between Kuwait and Oman, the only two members of the council that Qatar doesn’t have a spat with.

OPEC Exit

As the world’s biggest exporter of liquefied natural gas, Qatar has deep pockets. Flourishing alternative trade routes mean its economy is robust enough to cope with an extended stay out in the cold. The emirate stunned the oil world last week by announcing plans to quit OPEC after 57 years, a move analysts said was driven by increasing Saudi dominance of the grouping.

“Both sides continue to take provocative steps that contribute to continued tensions,” including Qatar’s decision to quit OPEC, Griffiths said in emailed comments.

The ink on King Salman’s invitation was barely dry when Bahrain’s foreign minister made it clear that Qatar’s attendance at the 39th GCC summit would have little impact on ending the standoff.

In an interview with a pan-Arab newspaper, Sheikh Khalid Al Khalifa questioned whether Qatar even belonged in the bloc given its policies. “It’s irrelevant if Qatar is there or absent, no matter who the person is in Qatar’s seat, because the issue is too big to solve with love and kisses,” he said. Kuwait, Oman and the United Arab Emirates complete the grouping.

After landing in Riyadh for the summit, Sheikh Khalifa tweeted that it “would’ve been best if Qatar accepted the fair demands” and attended the summit.

Yemen War

The U.A.E., Bahrain and Egypt aligned with Saudi Arabia against Qatar. Kuwait and Oman have stayed neutral in the worst spat the GCC has experienced since its foundation in 1981.

The feud within the Gulf club has hindered American efforts to present a united front with regional allies against Iran. Washington’s early efforts to end the dispute faltered, but they were re-energized after the murder of Saudi government critic Jamal Khashoggi shone a spotlight on the policies of the kingdom’s crown prince, Mohammed bin Salman.

A bipartisan group of U.S. senators have said that a classified briefing from the CIA convinced them that the prince played a role in the killing, with one describing the evidence as “a smoking saw.” That was a reference to the bone saw that Turkish investigators say was used to dismember Khashoggi’s body. Saudi investigators deny a bone saw was used.

The result could be a push for American sanctions against its chief Gulf ally, including restricting U.S. support for the Saudi military campaign in Yemen.

“The pressures coming out of Washington to end the war in Yemen, and to find some more transparency on what happened to Khashoggi, are strong and are building,” said Paul Sullivan, a Middle East expert at Georgetown University’s Center for Security Studies. “A sideshow to these may be to bring Qatar back into the GCC fold,” he said.

“But Qatar leaving OPEC is not a good sign for that. The reasons for the rift with Qatar go back way before the Yemen war and the nightmarish murder of Khashoggi.”

--With assistance from Nour Al Ali.

To contact the reporters on this story: Glen Carey in Riyadh at gcarey8@bloomberg.net;Vivian Nereim in Riyadh at vnereim@bloomberg.net

To contact the editors responsible for this story: Alaa Shahine at asalha@bloomberg.net, Mark Williams, Paul Abelsky

©2018 Bloomberg L.P.