Putin Shakes Up Russia to Keep Things the Same

(Bloomberg) --

Vladimir Putin’s replacement of his government and plan for sweeping reforms of Russia’s constitution look like an opening gambit in a strategy to see out the decade still in power.

While he must step down as president in 2024 under term limits, Kremlin officials have long been examining ways to prolong his 20-year rule.

Typically, the former KGB agent isn’t showing his hand now. Instead, he is creating options for maximum flexibility that keep everyone around him off kilter but also loyal. Long-serving premier Dmitry Medvedev was let go with a handshake, then kept onside with a new role on Russia’s Security Council.

While many Russians see Putin as a guarantor of stability, recent street protests revealed a hunger for change, fueled by sliding living standards. Incoming prime minister Mikhail Mishustin is a low-profile technocrat who transformed tax collection. If he succeeds in reviving Russia’s economy, his star may rise.

Putin’s constitutional plans potentially weaken the presidency and boost parliament, allowing him to rein in his chosen heir. They also strengthen the State Council, now an advisory body that could become a tool to control developments after he leaves office.

The president, 67, is not immortal. There is always the risk that squabbling factions plunge Russia into political uncertainty. But he’s shown he remains strongly in charge, and for now how long he chooses to rule is in his hands.

Global Headlines

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Broadcast news | Trump’s remarks at the signing of a long-awaited initial trade deal with Beijing got almost 20 minutes of live airtime on Chinese state television, which beamed the president across the country in the middle of its night. Once he began thanking domestic allies and discussing issues like impeachment, CCTV swung back to its studio, with its anchors praising China’s trade negotiators.

• Click here for a look at what is new in the trade deal, and what is unclear.

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What to Watch

• Chancellor Angela Merkel clinched a deal to kick-start Germany’s coal exit, offering billions in compensation to utilities and affected regions so plant closures can start this year.
• Hundreds of thousands of Hong Kong residents are still waiting for their salary tax bills, which normally start to land in mailboxes in July, with the backlog linked to anti-government protests that have gripped the city for seven months.
• Turkey lifted a ban of almost three years on Wikipedia after the nation’s top court ruled last month that the restriction violated free speech.

Tell us how we’re doing or what we’re missing at balancepower@bloomberg.net.

And finally ... We saw protests erupt around the world in 2019, spurred by a variety of social grievances, and it doesn’t seem 2020 will be any calmer. Global risk firm Verisk Maplecroft predicts that unrest will be the “new normal,” saying crackdowns by governments have only further radicalized protesters. Some of the steepest increases on the firm’s unrest index have been in Chile and Hong Kong.

--With assistance from Karl Maier, Kathleen Hunter, Juan Pablo Spinetto, Karen Leigh, Ben Sills and Miao Han.

To contact the editor responsible for this story: Rosalind Mathieson at rmathieson3@bloomberg.net

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