Post-Virus Stimulus Packages Could Devastate Global Climate Goals

(Bloomberg) -- As the coronavirus spreads rapidly across the world, China—where the outbreak began—is gradually shuddering back to life. After weeks of lockdowns, travel restrictions and manufacturing delays, some signs of normalcy are returning.

Although China’s measures to minimize the spread of the virus dramatically cut carbon emissions and air pollution, the silver lining is temporary. “The Chinese government’s coming stimulus measures in response to the disruption could outweigh these shorter-term impacts on energy and emissions,” Lauri Myllyvirta, an analyst at the Center for Research on Energy and Clean Air, wrote recently in an article.

In February, Chinese President Xi Jingping stressed that the country should not only “win the war with the virus” but also “achieve this year’s targets for social and economic development.”

Weeks of stringent measures to contain the virus have damaged the Chinese economy. Small businesses went bankrupt, jobs were lost and schools remain closed. There are already signs of a coming spending binge to compensate. An investment of tens of trillions of yuan has been planned for major projects across the country this year, including gas pipelines and nuclear power plants.

In early March, satellite data showed that nitrogen dioxide levels rose across China’s industrial heartland. Daily coal use is continuing to increase at coastal power plants.

It’s not the first time in recent history China has launched an environmentally damaging stimulus plan. The country spent 4 trillion yuan ($580 billion) in the aftermath of the 2008 crisis on a development plan which helped reverse a prior drop in global emissions. All indications are the ruling Communist Party will once again put economic growth above climate concerns, at least for the immediate future.

“I don’t think China will go back down the old road of development with huge pollution in the long term, but in a time like this, the government might adjust its priorities,” said Qian Guoqiang, a director at SinoCarbon Innovation & Investment Co. in Beijing.

China’s experience may not be unique. As the coronavirus impacts more nations, the future for climate goals is unclear as the economy wobbles. In a post-coronavirus world, growth may take priority over limiting emissions. 

Eventually, researchers will develop a vaccine for the virus. We’ve yet to identify such a fix for our climate. If we step backward now, the chance to fight the long-term crisis could be lost.

To contact the editor responsible for this story: Emily Biuso at ebiuso@bloomberg.net, Joshua Petri

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With assistance from Bloomberg