Nigeria Inflation Slows for First Month in Three in October

(Bloomberg) -- Nigeria’s inflation rate declined for the first time in three months in October even as food-price growth accelerated.

The consumer-price index rose 11.26 percent from a year earlier compared with 11.28 percent in September, the Abuja-based National Bureau of Statistics said Wednesday. The median estimate in a Bloomberg survey was for 11.4 percent. Prices increased 0.7 percent in the month.

The Central Bank of Nigeria’s Monetary Policy Committee is due to announce a decision Thursday on its key policy rate, which is at a record-high 14 percent. Most analysts expect the committee to hold it despite inflationary pressures.

Key Insights:

• Food prices climbed 13.3 percent from a year earlier, a third month of acceleration.
• Price growth in the West African nation has been above the central bank’s target band of 6 percent and 9 percent for more than three years.
• Inflation in Africa’s largest oil producer slowed for 18 straight months through July.
• Growth in consumer prices could average 12.4 percent this year, according to the International Monetary Fund.
• To keep a lid on inflation, the central bank has held its main lending rate at 14 percent since July 2016.
• Late disbursements from this year’s budget of 9.1 trillion naira ($25 billion) and election-related spending before the February vote may quicken price growth, central bank Governor Godwin Emefiele has said.
• The central bank’s MPC is expected to hold the key rate at 14 percent Thursday according to the median estimate of seven economists in a Bloomberg survey.
• “It’s a difficult call for the MPC to make tomorrow, having to juggle with rising inflation, muted growth and tighter monetary policy in the U.S.,” said Celeste Fauconnier, an analyst at Rand Merchant Bank unit, said in an emailed response to questions. “We believe for now, the CBN will keep rates unchanged until after the election to assess where inflation will be going over the next few months.”
• President Muhammadu Buhari, whose policies on the economy, security and the fight against corruption have had mixed results, will seek a second mandate.
• “The MPC has become more hawkish since the middle of the year as inflationary pressures seem to have picked up, but we don’t think inflation is at a point where it feels the need to hike,” Yvonne Mhango, sub-Sahara Africa economist at Renaissance Capital said by telephone from Johannesburg.

--With assistance from Prinesha Naidoo.

To contact the reporter on this story: Solape Renner in Lagos at srenner4@bloomberg.net

To contact the editors responsible for this story: Antony Sguazzin at asguazzin@bloomberg.net, Ana Monteiro, Sophie Mongalvy

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