Netanyahu Coalition In Crisis Over Religious Draft As War Rages

(Bloomberg) -- A dramatic Israeli Supreme Court ruling that freezes funding to ultra-Orthodox seminaries unless their students serve in the military is forcing Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s government to contend with its survival as the war in Gaza deepens the country’s political divisions.

Ultra-Orthodox parties in the ruling coalition, who’d been assured that their decades-long immunity from conscription would be made permanent, were in a rage, calling the decision “a mark of Cain” and threatening to exit. Those in the center who joined the war cabinet last October backed the court, citing the need for more military manpower as Israel faces threats not only from Hamas in Gaza but also from Hezbollah in Lebanon.

Since the war, the burden of carrying the ultra-Orthodox has become unbearable for large majorities of Israelis who see their abstention from military service as unfair and a drain on the economy. In essence, the two Israeli crises of the past year — mass protests over the government’s plans to weaken judicial independence and the war in Gaza — have converged into the ultimate test for Netanyahu.

“The issue isn’t the Supreme Court,” said Benny Gantz, an opposition leader and war cabinet member who’s polling far ahead of Netanyahu. “The issue is our need for soldiers during a difficult war and our society’s need for everyone to take part in the privilege of serving the country.”

Read more: Israel Court Freezes Seminary Funding in Blow to Netanyahu

Fifteen months ago, Netanyahu formed the most right-wing and religious government in Israel’s history, promising the ultra-Orthodox, or Haredim, that he would cement their immunity from conscription.

His government then moved to weaken the high court, saying its liberal justices were overstepping their authority when they ruled, among other things, that the Haredi exemption violated the constitutional mandate of equality. 

Thursday’s decision means that hundreds of religious academies, or yeshivas, will lose a significant portion of their funding, with some seeing as much as 50% of their budget vanish from Monday. The interim ruling could change in May when a larger group of justices takes up the case, but its impact will be felt immediately. 

Many Israelis have long resented the exemption not only because Haredim don’t share the security burden, but also because their yeshivas receive government subsidies, permitting many of their men to study religious texts rather than work. 

Haredim — some 13% of the Israeli population of almost 10 million and growing rapidly — live a cloistered life of poverty, prayer and study in large families. They believe religious study contributes far more to Israel’s safety than military service, and also fear their young men, if exposed to secular society, will leave the fold.

Read more: Freshly Downgraded Israel Readies Bond Spree to Pay for War

As Israel’s economy boomed in the past two decades — its per capita gross domestic product overtaking that of the UK and France — and with threats from Iran-backed groups such as Hamas thought to be under control, the dispute was largely one of principle. The marriage of convenience between the nationalist right and the Haredim survived. 

Then came the Oct. 7 attack, when thousands of Hamas militants surged into Israel, killing 1,200, abducting 250 and triggering the call-up of hundreds of thousands of soldiers for what has turned into the longest war since the country’s independence 75 years ago. 

The vow by Hamas — and similar militias like Hezbollah — to destroy Israel through more invasions has forced a rethinking of the country’s security doctrine, which has relied heavily on technology and intelligence over manpower. 

A plan to lengthen military service both for conscripts and reservists is expected to cost 100 billion shekels ($27 billion) over the next decade. If the ultra-Orthodox join the military, that would sharply reduce the hit by freeing up reservists to work.  

“There are 66,000 young, draft-age Haredi men,” said opposition leader Yair Lapid. “If you enlist 10,000 of them, there’s no need to extend conscripts’ service. If you enlist 20,000, there won’t be any need to issue any more call-up orders to reservists.”

The high court had given the government a deadline of the end of March to come up with a plan to start drafting Haredim. Netanyahu did, but his attorney general said it wouldn’t really bring Haredim into the military. Netanyahu’s request for more time was rejected, and the deadline stands.

If the Haredim leave the government, that would trigger elections, which aren’t scheduled until 2026. Many suspect they won’t since polls suggest a new government would be less welcoming of their demands. 

There’s a growing number of technocrats, business leaders and academics who see the current crisis in Gaza as the opportunity to confront the risk of Haredim pulling the country toward theocratic penury.

Read more: Israel’s Economy Contracts Nearly 20% After Outbreak of War

Nearly half of ultra-Orthodox men are unemployed, and only 14% have university degrees, according to data from the Finance Ministry. A quarter of children four and younger are ultra-Orthodox, raising questions about how the society will support itself in future.

During last year’s anti-government protests, led by the secular, high-tech sector in Tel Aviv, drafting the Haredim was often invoked. Now, even Netanyahu’s closest partners within his Likud party say the issue can’t be postponed. 

Netanyahu’s coalition only has a majority of five in the 120-seat Parliament.

Danny Danon, a Likud parliamentarian, said it’s no longer possible for the Haredim to stay on the margins. They’re needed in the army and in the workplace, he says.

“The Haredim will have to realize something happened on Oct. 7, and they have to contribute more,” he said by phone. 

So far, the Haredi leaders, men in their 80s and 90s, have refused to accept any change.

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