Negotiators Who Cut a Trade Deal With Trump Have Advice for You

(Bloomberg) -- Governments and companies seeking insight into how to negotiate with President Donald Trump may want to head to Mexico City.

That’s where two of the Mexican government leaders who helped line up the Nafta-successor trade deal with the U.S. are opening a new consulting firm. Ildefonso Guajardo traveled the world as economy minister for six years under President Enrique Pena Nieto, whose term ended in November. Juan Carlos Baker worked as Guajardo’s deputy in talks with the U.S., the European Union and Asian nations.

So what should you anticipate when facing Trump?

“You need to be prepared, expecting the unexpected,” Baker said in an interview. “Even when you have gotten to a place where a deal seems likely, expect an extra push. Be prepared for a hostile and extremely unpredictable environment. You need to be aware that the negotiating positions or many of the ideas that are tabled might end up the next day in a tweet. It’s not a normal negotiation.”

Mexico also realized that the auto industry would be the top priority for Trump and the U.S. and negotiated with that in mind, Baker said.

USMCA Veterans

Baker and Guajardo are founding partners in Consultores Internacionales Ansley, which offers services including negotiating strategies, interpretation and implementation of trade deals.

That could be valuable in an era of global trade tensions. Amid U.S. talks with China and the EU, the overhaul of the North American Free Trade Agreement, which also includes Canada, stands as a rare example of a successful negotiation with the White House.

Several former members of the Mexican team that negotiated the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement, known as USMCA, for the Pena Nieto administration are already working in the private sector. Chief negotiator Kenneth Smith Ramos joined economic and legal consultancy AGON to advise on trade issues. His former deputy, Salvador Behar, is the legal director for Mexico’s sugar chamber.

Others are in the administration of President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador, like Jesus Seade, representative of the then president-elect in the final months of talks. Seade has became a deputy foreign minister in Lopez Obrador’s administration, negotiating the steel tariffs deal announced last week.

‘Much Tougher’

While running for president, Trump said Mexican leaders and trade negotiators were “much tougher and smarter than those of the U.S.” And trade is the rare issue where leftist Lopez Obrador approved of the work of his predecessor, saying he wants the USMCA to be implemented without changes. It still needs to be passed by the legislative branch in all three nations.

Ansley is ramping up at a time when AMLO, as the president is known, is drawing greater scrutiny to former officials.

Going from government to the private sector is a common practice in Mexico, as in most countries, and has been for years. Yet AMLO has criticized officials who use their experience to go work in the private sector, accusing them of conflicts of interest. He proposed that they be prohibited from doing so for 10 years after leaving government.

Baker said the firm is careful to avoid potential problems.

“Trade is a hot topic, and we feel we can be useful from a different perspective” after leaving government, he said. “There are plenty of things we can do without crossing this line of a conflict of interest.”

To contact the reporter on this story: Eric Martin in Mexico City at emartin21@bloomberg.net

To contact the editors responsible for this story: Juan Pablo Spinetto at jspinetto@bloomberg.net, Robert Jameson, Ros Krasny

©2019 Bloomberg L.P.