Nasdaq 100 Has Not Diverged This Much From the Dow Since 1993

One of the best manifestations of the rotation from formerly high-flying growth stocks to value shares can be seen in the divergence of the Nasdaq 100 from the Dow Jones Industrial Average.

As the 125-year-old benchmark climbed to another intraday record, the Nasdaq 100 slumped to a level traditionally seen as a correction. It’s the first time since 1993 that the Dow rose and closed within 1% of a record, while the tech-heavy gauge was down more than 10% from its high.

“Investors are feeling better about the recovery and looking to own improving fundamentals within large caps outside of tech and growth where valuations are more reasonable,” said Mike Bailey, director of research at FBB Capital Partners. “The focus on better fundamentals at a reasonable price may be driving the Dow to new highs.”

Nasdaq 100 Has Not Diverged This Much From the Dow Since 1993

All but five of the 30-member Dow index traded higher Monday at the 4 p.m. close in New York, with shares of Walt Disney Co. leading with a 6.3% gain. Visa Inc., Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and Home Depot Inc. each advanced more than 2%. Meanwhile, drops in Apple Inc. and Tesla Inc. weighed on the 36-year-old Nasdaq 100.

Shares of other companies that had done well in 2020’s stay-at-home environment, including Microsoft Corp. and Netflix Inc., also dented the tech-centric Nasdaq 100, as did those whose businesses helped consumers work from home during the pandemic, including Zoom Video Communications Inc., which fell almost 8%, and DocuSign Inc., down about 6%.

The split-market activity on display is another manifestation of the rotation underway as investors switch into shares of companies whose fortunes are closely tied to the economic cycle. That’s been painful for high-growth, high-valuation tech shares that become less appealing amid bond-market turbulence that’s sent yields on 10-year Treasuries to 1.61%.

The rotation is even harsher in once-hot areas like the market for special-purpose acquisition companies, or SPACs, another 2020 craze whose allure has fizzled in recent days. A gauge tracking such firms -- IPOX SPAC Index -- declined 2.6% Monday, its fourth down day out of the last five sessions. A popular SPAC by Chamath Palihapitiya -- the Social Capital Hedosophia Holdings Corp. V, or IPOE -- fell as much as 11% at one point before closing Monday down 9%.

“It feels like an attitude adjustment for tech and growth stocks,” said Bailey. “Investors have decided that these Covid winners just got too expensive and now it’s time for a valuation haircut.”

©2021 Bloomberg L.P.

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