Mr. Belmont Stakes Will Strike Once Again: David Papadopoulos

(Bloomberg) -- From the moment I first saw the horse -- a big, striking gray by the name of Intrepid Heart -- I thought “Belmont Stakes.” Not so much because of his imposing physical appearance, but because of the way he traveled in races: under duress early and having to work hard to keep up with, and eventually pass, the leaders.

When a colt struggles like that in races held at more conventional distances, the stretch-out to the mile and a half in the Belmont can often suit him to a T. It’s just easier for the horse to keep up when the first half-mile is posted in, say, a leisurely 49 seconds rather than a blistering 46 seconds in a shorter race. He can get in a comfortable rhythm and gallop along, his rider sitting chilly in the saddle, having neither to urge nor restrain him.

Faster, higher-energy types -- like War of Will, the Preakness Stakes winner -- will often fight the rider in the early stages of a marathon like the Belmont. They will find the dawdling pace too tepid for their liking and strain anxiously to pick up the tempo, sapping much-needed energy for the stretch run.

So when I came across Intrepid Heart a month ago while handicapping another race, he struck me as a perfect fit for the Belmont.

And as it turns out, his trainer, Todd Pletcher, had been thinking the same thing for months. “We’ve had this plan for a while,” he told me one recent afternoon. Not only does his running style suit the race but, Pletcher noted, he’s “bred perfectly for it.”

Offspring of both his sire, Tapit, and his dam, Flaming Heart, have had great success in the race. Back in 2014, his half-brother, a colt also trained by Pletcher, came within a whisker of winning the Belmont at odds of 28-1. (Expect a price closer to 10-1 on Intrepid Heart.)

Now Pletcher’s putting blinkers on Intrepid Heart for the first time on Saturday. Normally, that’d be a no-no for a race like the Belmont because the blinkers tend to inject speed into a horse when the gates spring open. But Pletcher says this pair will be on the smaller side, offering just enough eye coverage to get the horse to stop spacing out so much and focus on the task at hand.

I have some misgivings about the move, I won’t lie, but really, who am I to argue with Pletcher?

He’s a master at preparing horses for the Belmont. Not only have his charges won three of the past 12 editions, they’ve posted four second-place finishes -- three of which were inches away from being victories -- and a handful of thirds and fourths. Maybe that doesn’t quite make him the second-coming of Woody Stephens, but it’s pretty darn good.

I’m betting Intrepid Heart to win and will play him in an exacta box with another gray colt sired by Tapit -- the likely race-time favorite Tacitus. For those of you looking to make an even fatter score, consider throwing a long shot by the name of Spinoff into the mix. He can run a little, and he’s also trained by that Pletcher guy.

(David Papadopoulos, a senior editor at Bloomberg News, is a voter in the thoroughbred industry’s annual Eclipse Awards. He has been publishing his Triple Crown picks since 2012.)

To contact the reporter on this story: David Papadopoulos in New York at papadopoulos@bloomberg.net

To contact the editors responsible for this story: Anne Reifenberg at areifenberg@bloomberg.net, Melinda Grenier

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