Libya’s Future Hinges on a Proxy Standoff in Qaddafi’s Home Town
Libya’s Future Hinges on a Proxy Standoff in Qaddafi’s Home Town
(Bloomberg) -- The dusty Mediterranean town where former Libyan dictator Moammar Qaddafi was born and died seems an unlikely place for a military standoff between Russia, Turkey and Egypt. But Sirte is also the gateway to the largest oil reserves in Africa.
The front lines were calm Tuesday around the city, located on the Mediterranean coast midway between Tripoli and Benghazi. Rebel commander Khalifa Haftar controls it now, but forces loyal to internationally recognized Prime Minister Fayez al-Sarraj are preparing to take it back, building on momentum after rebuffing a 14-month siege of the capital.
Russia and Egypt, along with the United Arab Emirates, have backed Haftar’s eastern army, while Turkey put the weight of NATO’s second-largest military behind Sarraj’s Tripoli-based government. With the fighting at a stalemate, Egyptian President Abdel-Fattah El-Sisi warned Saturday that Sirte was a “red line,” signaling a possible intervention if Sarraj and Turkey disrupted the balance.
But the line in the sand over Sirte presents a dilemma for Haftar’s supporters. With their effort to take Tripoli abandoned in failure, they’re left trying to push a political compromise on a military leader who’s as crucial to the solution as he has been a part of the problem.
Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov and his Egyptian counterpart Sameh Shoukry agreed on Sunday that “a military solution is not an option,” according to the Foreign Ministry in Moscow. But Russia has also sent warplanes to reinforce Haftar’s forces as they retreated and dug in around Sirte.
Oil Crescent
The battle for the city of some 85,000 people will be decisive for the oil industry. It’s the gateway to the central and eastern oil crescent, where much of the nation’s 1 million-plus barrels a day of output were once shipped to world markets. It now produces just 90,000 barrels a day.
“Egypt has not many other options left” after Sisi’s threats to intervene, said Riccardo Fabiani, North Africa project director at the International Crisis Group. “The question is what type of intervention this will be, who will support Egypt in this effort and if they can match Ankara’s military power.”
The world’s attention has turned to Sirte before. Little more than a village when Moammar al-Qaddafi was born there around 1942 during the Italian occupation, it was lavished with money and attention after he took power and consolidated a rule that would last four decades, even as Libyans elsewhere were neglected.
In summer 2011, as NATO-backed rebels took Tripoli during Libya’s Arab Spring uprising, Qaddafi fled for his hometown, declaring it the de facto capital. It was his last stand: soon after he was captured and killed.
Four years later, with the country fractured into competing eastern and western governments, Islamic State gained a foothold. It staged crucifixions and beheadings in the streets, and made a conference center in Sirte its headquarters. But the reign of terror was short-lived: a coalition of militias with international backing retook the city in late 2016.
Digging In
Now Haftar’s forces are digging in, hitting the brakes on a retreat that started several weeks ago when they lost key positions around Tripoli. The battle for the capital began in April 2019, after Haftar’s fighters swept through the east and south.
Haftar launched his campaign just as the United Nations secretary-general was visiting to discuss a political resolution. He shunned international efforts to broker a cease-fire, walking out of a Russia-hosted gathering in January.
It was the latest mercurial move for the septuagenarian, who was a top officer under Qaddafi and helped wage war in the 1980s against Chad, where he was captured and imprisoned. Freed, he became an opponent of Libya’s leader and moved to the U.S., finally returning to his country in 2011.
Turkish Intervention
After the failed Moscow meeting, Turkey boosted its military and logistical support for Haftar’s opponents, prompting a rapid turning of the tide. Haftar this month called a unilateral cease-fire and committed to resuming an Egypt-backed political initiative. The GNA rejected it, saying it would capture Sirte and a base called Jufra first.
Whoever holds Sirte “controls half of Libya,” said Brigadier Abdul-Hadi Dara, a military spokesman for the GNA who said forces are awaiting Sarraj’s command to launch a full assault. He said two cargo planes carrying support for mercenaries loyal to Haftar landed south of Sirte on Saturday; the eastern commander has fielded hundreds of paid fighters from Russia and Syria.
While Turkey has marked Sarraj’s victory over Tripoli with visits by top officials and talks of aid, the UAE and Russia have hinted at dissatisfaction with Haftar. People familiar with Moscow’s thinking said the commander has been viewed as a bad bet for months, but walking away would be an admission of failure.
“Haftar is a spent force, he’s of no use anymore,” said Andrei Chyprygin, a Middle East expert at the Higher School of Economics in Moscow.
The UAE’s minister of state for foreign affairs, Anwar Gargash, last week said of him that “some of our friends” took unilateral decisions and many of them “have proven wrong.”
Haftar’s pullback from Tripoli may have been the catalyst for the stepped-up diplomatic efforts by Egypt earlier in June.
The field marshal is worried that Russia could withdraw support, according to an eastern Libyan official familiar with discussions in that region. The Tripoli campaign’s failure was linked to the withdrawal of Russian mercenaries and a similar situation could play out in Sirte, the person said.
Haftar needs to stop fighting and return to negotiations, the person said, asking not to be named because of the sensitivity of the matter.
It’s not just Haftar’s backers who may have an interest in pushing for peace with him, but also his rivals, according to Mohamed Anis Salem, an analyst at the Egyptian Council for Foreign Affairs and a former ambassador.
“I wouldn’t try to change my opponent at the beginning of the process; if you try to change your opponent, you may end up having people who are much less capable of honoring the agreement you’re signing,” Salem said. “This is a moment for wise men.”
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