Khama Family, Botswana Political Royalty, Faces Election Setback

(Bloomberg) -- For more than half a century, the Khama family has been synonymous with political power in Botswana.

Seretse Khama, who’s life was portrayed in the 2016 film “A United Kingdom,” became the southern African nation’s first president after independence from Britain in 1966, a post he held until his death in 1980. Ian, his eldest son and a former army general, ruled for a decade before stepping down last year in favor of his hand-picked successor and deputy, Mokgweetsi Masisi.

Now, the dynasty looks set to play a diminished role in the world’s second-biggest diamond producer. Instead of doing his predecessor’s bidding, Masisi has so infuriated Khama -- by reversing a ban on elephant hunting, easing curbs on alcohol sales and firing some of his closest allies -- that the former president formed a rival party to contest Wednesday’s election.

Ian’s brother and former cabinet minister, Tshekedi, joined him, but voters may not have abandoned the Botswana Democratic Party in droves as Khama, 66, expected.

The split in the ruling party has raised the risk of uncertainty in what has been one of Africa’s most stable democracies -- it has never experienced civil war or a coup and has the continent’s highest credit rating at Moody’s Investors Service. Also at stake are the terms of a diamond-sales joint venture between the government and De Beers, the largest diamond seller and a unit of Anglo American Plc.

Enough Votes

A survey of 1,200 adults, published on Oct. 10 by research company Afrobarometer, showed 44% backed BDP, 22% the main opposition Umbrella for Democratic Change and just 2% supported Khama’s Botswana Patriotic Front. Another 16% hadn’t decided yet or refused to answer. The BDP won 47% of the popular vote in the last election five years ago, a record low.

Masisi, 58, has reinvigorated support for the ruling party by raising civil-servant wages and winning over labor unions that previously backed the opposition, said Ndulamo Morima, a lawyer and political analyst.

“He has done enough to gain the votes that were lost in 2014, while the opposition has not done enough to influence the swing vote,” Morima said by phone from Gaborone, the capital. The opposition is also fractured, with two groups breaking away from the main opposition coalition, he said.

Elephant Hunts

A former schoolteacher, Masisi has won the support of religious groups and the youth through targeted programs, at a time when the economy is thriving -- the International Monetary Fund expects economic growth to average 4.2% annually through 2024. While a decision to lift a ban on hunting enraged conservationists, it could win him support in rural areas where farmers vie for land with elephants.

Masisi said in a Sept. 6 interview he intends to boost employment, attract more foreign investment, cut the state wage bill and reduce the economy’s dependency on diamonds after the vote.

Khama, whose party has loosely aligned itself with the main opposition UDC, didn’t respond to requests for an interview.

The UDC, led by human rights lawyer Duma Boko, has pledged to create 100,000 jobs within a year and raise the minimum wage to 3,000 pula ($277) if it wins. It also intends targeting an economic growth rate of 6% to 8% and reviewing the constitution to enhance the independence of parliament and the judiciary.

While the Khama family probably won’t continue to pull the government’s levers, Morima said, it’s unlikely to completely disappear from the political scene. Tshekedi, for example, will probably win his constituency, he said.

“The Masisi honeymoon will not last beyond the first term because many of the initiatives he is doing are not sustainable after the elections -- for instance the improved salaries, job creation promises and others,” Morima said.

To contact the reporters on this story: Mbongeni Mguni in Botswana at mmguni@bloomberg.net;Mike Cohen in Cape Town at mcohen21@bloomberg.net

To contact the editors responsible for this story: Paul Richardson at pmrichardson@bloomberg.net, Gordon Bell, Karl Maier

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