ADVERTISEMENT

Kazakhs Vote for New President But Leader-for-Life Still Wins

Kazakhs Vote for New President But Leader-for-Life Still Wins

(Bloomberg) -- Kazakhstan’s leader-for-life Nursultan Nazarbayev has won every presidential election held in the central Asian nation since independence nearly three decades ago. Now he isn’t even running and he’ll still come out on top.

Acting President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev seeks to put an electoral seal on his position as Nazarbayev’s hand-picked successor in elections on Sunday, completing a choreographed transfer of office that began with the longtime ruler’s resignation in March. Even so, Nazarbayev has been careful to retain key powers as head of the national security council and remains leader of the ruling party in parliament. He also took personal control last month of the oil-rich nation’s sovereign wealth fund.

Kazakhs Vote for New President But Leader-for-Life Still Wins

“There should be no illusion about Tokayev’s independence as president: he will constantly rely on Nazarbayev for advice and guidance,” said George Voloshin, a Paris-based analyst at Aperio Intelligence Ltd. “There is no real competition” in the elections, he said.

Nazarbayev, 78, ruled Kazakhstan unchallenged since it became independent from the Soviet Union in 1991. He’s trying to pull off a feat that few other leaders of former Soviet republics have managed by engineering a succession to a trusted figure who’ll continue his policies. The experiment is being watched closely in Russia where the Kremlin is wrestling with the dilemma of what to do in 2024 when President Vladimir Putin faces a constitutional bar on re-election. Other central Asian autocrats in Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan died in office.

Tokayev, 66, called the snap election in April “to remove any uncertainty” about the handover, and has run on a pledge to “ensure continuity” of Nazarbayev’s policies in a country the size of western Europe that maintains a delicate balance in relations with Russia and China. He faces six other candidates in the election, though none is seen as a serious challenger.

Opposition Protests

The managed succession has prompted a rare surge in protests by opposition activists angered at what they see as a lack of democracy and genuine choice in the elections. Police clashed with demonstrators calling for a boycott of the vote during street protests in May.

While protests have been small, they reflect “widely-held disaffection” particularly among the urban middle class, said Kate Mallinson, an expert on Kazakhstan at Prism Political Risk Management Ltd. in London. Tokayev “faces a tough choice in either allowing the simmering disaffection to continue, risking a cascade of the protests or closing down the political space entirely,” she said.

The transition is taking place as officials strive to stimulate growth and boost living standards in central Asia’s largest economy following the 2015 currency slump when oil prices crashed. Shortly before he stepped down, Nazarbayev ordered billions of dollars in extra spending after acknowledging public discontent with “flatlining” incomes. He also dismissed the government and the central bank chief, accusing ministers of failing to implement programs effectively.

He insists he won’t overshadow Tokayev in office, telling campaign officials that there’s “only one president in the country, we won’t allow any dual authority” at a May 25 meeting of the ruling Nur Otan party. Still, “we’ll all help the president,” he said.

‘Low Key’

Tokayev demonstrated his loyalty to Nazarbayev immediately after becoming president by leading the move to rename the capital, Astana, as Nur-Sultan. He also proposed Dariga Nazarbayeva, the leader’s daughter, to replace him as head of the senate, putting her next in line to succeed as president under the constitution.

The election campaign has been “low key,” observers from the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe said in a May 24 report. While Tokayev, who declined to take part in Kazakhstan’s first televised presidential debate, limited his involvement to a few rallies, he was “actively touring the country, formally, in his capacity as president,” according to the report.

“The lack of real competition, excitement and enthusiasm among the population hides the one possible danger for the authorities — what if the turn-out is low and what will this mean for legitimacy?” Citigroup analysts Ivan Tchakarov and Artem Zaigrin wrote in a note to investors.

Tokayev “won’t be allowed” to emulate Nazarbayev’s past landslide election victories when he won more than 90 percent of votes, said Mallinson. Still, “he needs a comfortable margin to not permit any doubts about his popularity and legitimacy.”

To contact the reporter on this story: Nariman Gizitdinov in Almaty at ngizitdinov@bloomberg.net

To contact the editors responsible for this story: Torrey Clark at tclark8@bloomberg.net, Tony Halpin

©2019 Bloomberg L.P.