K Street Buzzes Over Possible Shift to Biden After Trump Era
K Street Buzzes Over Possible Shift to Biden After Trump Era
(Bloomberg) -- Washington’s vaunted corps of lobbyists is bracing for the prospect of a win next month by Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden.
All across the nation’s capital, companies and trade associations are laying plans for a potential Biden administration. They are strategizing on how to defend clients from an expected resurgence of regulation and marry their priorities with Biden’s expected focus on stimulating the economy, expanding health care and overhauling corporate taxes.
It’s a massive undertaking that much of K Street began early in the year and which has swelled along with Biden’s polling lead over President Donald Trump and signs that Democrats could also gain control of the Senate. Not since 2008, when President George W. Bush was leaving the White House, have lobbyists planned for the possibility of so sweeping a change in Washington’s corridors of power.
“There is a huge amount of planning going on in our client base for what this could look like,” said Rich Gold, a lobbyist with Holland & Knight LLP who represents the American Chemistry Council, education technology provider Zovio Inc. agriculture giant Corteva Inc. and a number of local governments. “It’s highly likely the first six months of 2021 are some of the biggest legislative months I will have in my career in terms of things moving.”
The presidential race remains tight in key states and the firms remain vigilant for another Trump victory like the one that caught many by surprise in 2016. But they are hedging their bets and increasingly planning around Biden’s polling lead.
One firm is developing dossiers on potential appointees, selling them to clients under the maxim “people are policy.” Another has created flow charts outlining possible committee leadership changes on Capitol Hill. And at least one group has established a war room to brainstorm strategies for countering policy proposals.
Rack-and-Stack
An oil lobbyist, who asked for anonymity to discuss strategy, has referred it as a “rack-and-stack” exercise -- thinking through all the actions the Biden administration could undertake, when they might happen and what companies need to do now to ensure there are no regrets.
The prospect of a Democratic sweep of the Senate and White House is also driving some to cultivate closer relationships with moderate Democrats such as Joe Manchin of West Virginia, Jon Tester of Montana and Kyrsten Sinema of Arizona, who would hold outsize influence to stop legislation, according to two lobbyists who asked for anonymity to detail strategy.
One reason for the urgency is that Biden would enter the White House with a mandate for big changes. Lobbyists interviewed by Bloomberg News -- many of whom asked not to be identified for fear of angering one side or the other -- said they expect immediate action on a new coronavirus spending bill to help stimulate the U.S. economy, followed by legislative efforts to expand health care coverage and increase the corporate tax rate.
Stimulus Bill
A stimulus bill alone could provide an opening for many corporate interests -- and not just for a federal cash infusion. For instance, some companies anticipate an opportunity to remove barriers to telemedicine, potentially as part of an effort to strengthen health care. At the same time, drugmakers want to fend off measures to limit prices that they expect from House Democrats.
And renewable energy developers are looking for ways to use a stimulus package to foster clean energy programs, just as the Obama-era recovery act spurred building weatherizations and investments in cutting-edge power technologies.
Lobbyists say they are mapping out a complex web of possible actions in the new year -- from specific policy proposals and executive orders to a rewrite of the Senate’s filibuster rule that could make it easier to pass legislation on a simple majority. All the while, they are keeping close watch on bigger trends that will shape policy making, from the increasingly aggressive U.S. posture toward China to stiffer antitrust scrutiny of the tech sector.
“It’s so difficult to play out some of these scenarios here, and as a committed Democrat, I think we’re all still suffering from a little post-traumatic stress from 2016,” said David Thomas, a one-time aide to Vice President Al Gore and a partner at the bipartisan firm Mehlman Castagnetti Rosen & Thomas. “Everything comes with qualifiers.”
A Biden presidency poses unique challenges to fossil fuel producers, technology giants and others seen as aligned with Trump. Lobbyists representing companies that thrived under his deregulation are already sketching out strategies for defending cherished policies -- and triaging which ones they’ll have to abandon -- in the new year.
Military Preparations
The preparations can take on an almost military quality. Matt Haller, senior vice president for government relations at the International Franchise Association, said his group over the summer completed a SWOT analysis -- strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats.
Companies are deciphering “what do Biden’s first 100 days look like,” and “how do they impact us and how do we begin planning for that,” said longtime energy consultant Stephen Brown. After converting campaign promises and plans into digestible pieces, the question is deciding “what are things in each one of those pillars that we can live with, what are things we need to spend some time negotiating over, and what are those we will fight to the ground?”
That includes developing alternative approaches that still achieve Biden’s policy goals but which companies find more tolerable. They can be pitched to a new administration eager to pick its battles.
“As a new administration, you’re always calculating how you want to spend political capital,” Gold said. “And if you can achieve a goal through a different means than you originally thought, what do you care?”
Industries that expect to become persona non grata in a Washington ruled by Democrats have spent months rewriting talking points, commissioning economic studies and courting outsiders at center-left groups to help advance their causes. For instance, some fossil fuel interests expect to lean on allies in organized labor.
Technology Firms
Tech companies, which are facing bipartisan pressure in Washington, should emphasize the possibility of unanticipated consequences to any crackdown, said Carl Szabo, vice president of the trade group NetChoice. For example, giving new powers to the Federal Trade Commission now could come back to haunt Democrats when the other party takes over and could wield the FTC in ways they wouldn’t like, said Szabo, whose group counts Facebook Inc., Twitter Inc. and other tech platforms as members.
In many sectors, old messages that resonated with Republicans are being refashioned so they better appeal to Democrats. Some groups and companies have quietly developed progressive policy positions on climate change and immigration but have held off enunciating those while Trump is in the White House.
“You can’t just be against everything; it’s what you can be for and how can you be for it,” said Brown, the energy consultant. “That creates a huge internal discussion, not just by company by company but also trade association by trade association.”
Earlier: Trump Asked by Chamber of Commerce to Withdraw Diversity Order
Some trade groups and companies are cultivating ties with Democrats. The Chamber of Commerce this year endorsed 23 vulnerable House Democrats seeking re-election, over the objections of Trump and his allies and despite the lobbying powerhouse’s deep Republican ties.
Some groups are also planning to hire Democratic consultants if Biden wins.
‘Speed Dating’
“Sophisticated corporations are in a constant state of re-evaluating their consulting teams, understanding that they’ve got to be nimble and have the best possible folks advising them and representing them in Washington,” said Heather Podesta, a Democratic lobbyist and chief executive officer of Invariant, which represents companies including Apple Inc., Yelp Inc., PepsiCo Inc. and the Business Roundtable.
That means getting to know consultants with specialties and contacts that might be needed. “Right now, everybody is in a state of speed dating,” she said.
Lobbyists are also renewing ties on Capitol Hill, mindful of Biden’s longstanding service in the House and Senate.
“There will be a lot of interoperability between folks in Democratic leadership and on committees of jurisdiction and agencies,” said Scott Segal, a partner at Bracewell LLP. “If you have good relationships with folks that are interested in the subject area in the House and Senate, then you already are along the path of what is doable in a Biden administration and who they are talking to.”
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