Iran’s Quest to Dominate the Mideast Loses Its Hero
It was Soleimani’s presence—on the fronts in Lebanon, Syria and Iraq—that helped the seemingly unchecked rise of Iran’s loyalists
(Bloomberg) -- Three months before he was killed by a U.S. drone, Qassem Soleimani reminisced about his involvement in the war between Israel and the Iranian-backed Lebanese militant group Hezbollah.
Iran’s most prominent general recalled how he traveled to Lebanon from Syria on July 12, 2006, partly on foot through back roads because the main highway was unsafe. He took off his military jacket one night in Beirut’s southern suburbs, traditionally a Shiite stronghold loyal to Iran, before he and Hezbollah chief Hassan Nasrallah took shelter under a tree.
“There was total unity in the Islamic Republic over supporting Hezbollah and ensuring its victory,” Soleimani said in an interview with Khamenei.ir, the official website of Iran’s supreme leader, published on Oct. 1. It was his first in 20 years.
The account by the commander of Iran’s expeditionary Quds Force, who was killed in Iraq last week, highlighted how instrumental he had become in the quest to infiltrate Arab countries. The focus is now on the void he leaves behind as the proxies he nurtured in the Middle East to do that job face unprecedented economic, political or security challenges.
It was Soleimani’s presence—on the fronts in Lebanon, Syria and Iraq—that helped the seemingly unchecked rise of Iran’s loyalists in the region since Saddam Hussein’s ouster in 2003. At the time of his death, though, things had changed and he was dealing with one crisis after the other in those countries.
This time last year, Hezbollah dominated politics and a lot of society in Lebanon despite mounting U.S. sanctions. Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, Iran’s closest Arab ally, had regained control of most of his country. Iraq had declared a major victory against Islamic State with the help of Iran-backed Shiite militias.
Now there are protests in Iraq that have called for an end to Iranian intervention, demonstrations in Lebanon that have challenged Hezbollah’s dominance in the country and a dire economic situation in Syria, where Russia is asserting itself as the main power. A series of attacks on oil tankers in the Gulf and a brazen assault on an oil facility in Saudi Arabia stood out as minor victories.
The question is whether the U.S. has now dealt a knockout punch, said Kamran Bokhari, founding director at the Center for Global Policy in Washington. “Iran has reached a point where in this moment the curve is now downward,” said Bokhari. “Will it continue to go downward is another question.”
Indeed, much depends on how Iran responds. Soleimani’s death robs the country of the man with the most experience to handle these issues. It now falls on Esmail Ghaani, his replacement and a veteran of Middle East conflicts, to lead those proxies that are struggling.
Among the thousands that attended his funeral were representatives of organizations listed as terrorist groups by the U.S. and Europe. Ismail Haniyeh, leader of Palestinian group Hamas, said Soleimani’s efforts helped strengthen the resistance and enhanced its power, according to Hezbollah-run Al-Manar TV.
“The resistance project in Palestine will continue,” Haniyeh vowed in a speech at Tehran University. “It will not be weakened. It will not retreat.”
Nasrallah’s deputy, Naim Qassem, led Hezbollah’s delegation to offer condolences to Soleimani’s family, Al-Manar said. The axis of resistance will become more powerful, he told the TV station.
“Hezbollah will bear greater responsibilities and continue to follow this honorable path,” he said.
A veteran of the 1980s Iran-Iraq war, Soleimani was a household name in Iran where he was celebrated for helping to defeat Islamic State in Iraq and Syria and countering U.S. influence.
The 2003 U.S. invasion of Iraq that led to the fall of Saddam Hussein, a Sunni Muslim who persecuted Shiites and Kurds, removed a big hurdle that constrained Iran’s outreach efforts.
Soleimani’s role grew as Iran became more entrenched in the Arab world. He cultivated militias in Iraq and sent Shiite fighters to beef up government troops in Syria. In 2006, he helped Hezbollah recover from the war to dominate politics and effectively hand pick a Lebanese president.
In Yemen, Houthi rebels still prevailed despite a sustained Saudi-led campaign to defeat them, one that gained increasing international scrutiny and put pressure on Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman.
In recent years, news, pictures and videos of Soleimani emerged. He met Nasrallah in Lebanon, was seen at the front checking on allied militias in Iraq, and shared in celebrations following the defeat of Islamic State in a Syrian city as fighters jostled to take selfies with him.
“These are not accidental photos,” said Bokhari. “They embellished him, made him mythical deliberately.”
Iran’s biggest success then and now has been Hezbollah, which the Islamic Republic established in the 1980s.
On Sunday, Soleimani’s daughter, Zainab Soleimani, appeared on Al-Manar TV, sitting next to a framed picture of Nasrallah and another photo of her father. She sent her regards to “our uncle, the master of resistance” Nasrallah “whom I know will avenge my father’s blood.”
A few hours later, Nasrallah vowed that American soldiers would be targeted in response, adding when Americans started going home in coffins U.S. President Donald Trump will understand that he has lost the region.
Indeed, the Shiite country of 80 million people is weakened economically, battling its own domestic unrest and its proxies are all in poor shape, but it’s dangerous to suggest Iran’s influence will wane, according to Paul Salem, president of the Middle East Institute in Washington. It all depends on the regime staying in tact, he said.
“If it survives, it will still have significant hegemony in the Levant—even in an impoverished and chaotic Levant,” said Salem. “Until there is enough national power in Iraq, Lebanon or Syria to contest the embattled Iranian hegemony or there are external powers eager to take advantage of Iranian weakness by moving in themselves—an unlikely and unattractive scenario—Iran power in its proxy lands will remain.”
Trump and his top aides are arguing that the taking out of Soleimani was designed to deter future attacks and make the Middle East safer. The president stated it was aimed at preventing war rather than starting one.
Back in July 2018, Soleimani had taunted Trump after he threatened Iran with dire consequences if it stood against Washington. The general said in a speech that the U.S. had committed crimes in Afghanistan and that the Americans and Israelis had suffered a “humiliating defeat” in the 33-day war against Hezbollah in 2006.
“Gambler Trump! I alone stand against you,” Soleimani said, according to Iran’s Tasnim news agency. “We, the Iranian nation, have gone through tough events. You may begin a war, but it is us who will end it.”
--With assistance from Reema Al Othman.
To contact the editor responsible for this story: Rodney Jefferson at r.jefferson@bloomberg.net
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