Biden’s Edge in Iowa Is Soft, and ‘Poor Kids’ Gaffe Helps Show Why
Biden Holds Soft Edge in Leadoff Iowa, Where Win Is Hardly Sure
(Bloomberg) -- Joe Biden campaigns with the air of a future Democratic nominee. But Iowans say they aren’t going to just hand him a victory.
With just under six months to go until the Iowa caucuses kick off the party’s presidential nominating process, the former vice president leads in every poll of the state’s Democrats and has strong -- but not dominant -- fundraising and field operations there.
But while many voters say they like him and would choose him if the caucus were held today, they can nonetheless see themselves ending up with another candidate. Polling makes him the front-runner but, Iowa Democrats say, support for him is still soft.
Biden’s longwinded speech at the Iowa soapbox this week and several verbal gaffes -- including suggesting that “poor kids” are as smart as “white kids” -- don’t help his cause.
“I don’t think it’s inevitable that he will win,” said Michael McCandless, 63, a retired corrections officer from West Burlington said this week during a Biden campaign stop. “There’s some good candidates out there, so a lot of things could change.” Still, he said, “Right now he’s definitely at the top of my list.”
Campaigning intensifies this weekend with presidential candidates hitting the Iowa State Fair, the Wing Ding Dinner on Friday, and a gun control policy forum on Saturday. The guns gathering was convened after last weekend’s mass shootings in Texas, and Ohio. Labor Day will be another important milestone on the calendar in Iowa as kids go back to school and campaigns buy more television ad time. Senator Kamala Harris’s first spots began airing in Iowa on Thursday.
“This is basically half time. We’ve had six months of pretty intensive campaigning, we have another six months ahead of us, and Biden is ahead at half time,” said veteran Iowa Democratic strategist Jeff Link. “But it’s the fourth quarter that matters.”
Even Biden, 76, acknowledged that point, telling a swarm of reporters at the Iowa State Fair on Thursday, “It’s way early on. I know the polls have me ahead by 10, or 12 points to the next person, but it’s early. It’s real early. I plan on being here to earn the vote of Iowa.”
Still Polling Ahead
In a Monmouth University poll of likely Iowa Democratic caucus-goers released Thursday, Biden had the support of 28% of those surveyed. Senator Elizabeth Warren was second at 19%, Kamala Harris was in third at 11% and all other candidates were in the single digits. Warren gained seven percentage points from Monmouth’s previous Iowa poll, conducted just before Biden entered the race in April, while Biden was up one point.
Interest in the candidates is already high, said Iowa Democratic Party chairman Troy Price. “There’s a lot of energy and excitement out there. I was surprised by some of the crowd sizes in July,” he said. Candidates are wrapping up the introductory phase of their campaigns and moving on to “sharpening their message and getting their field organizations working well,” he said.
Penny Rosfjord, the former chairwoman of the Woodberry County Democratic Party in the state’s far west, said she’s seen big crowds for even low-polling candidates. While she said she encounters some voters who’ve settled on a candidate, most have at least two or three they’re considering and are open-minded about hearing from others. Biden may be on those lists but he’s not alone there.
‘Not a Done Deal’
“This is not a done deal by any stretch of the imagination. I don’t think people are completely settled on one candidate,” she said.”They are definitely not wanting to resign to anyone including Vice President Biden.”
Deb Walker, 66, a retiree from Burlington, Iowa, is one of those voters. She’s was “huge Obama fan -- huge” in 2008 and likes that Biden was Obama’s vice president, but is leaning toward caucusing for Warren. She hopes as more people find out about the Massachusetts senator she’ll continue to rise. “My biggest concern with Biden is his age and an ‘oh, been there done that’ attitude,” she said.
Others are ready to see Biden become the nominee and move on to what they see as the main event -- facing Trump in the general election.
“Biden is my guy. We should have had this guy four years ago,” said Jan Logan, 77, a retired educator from Burlington. “I’m tired of seeing 17 people up on the stage talking, wasting our time. I told my wife I won’t go to any others because he is our candidate. I really believe he’s the only one who can beat Donald Trump and we’ve got to all be geared in on that right now. Because we don’t want four more years of Donald Trump.”
Ground Game
Warren’s ground game is universally praised by political professionals as the best in Iowa. Her signs and staff are the most visible across the state, multiple Iowa Democrats said, and her field organizers are enthusiastic and engaged. Biden’s team has really only taken root since June and is still working to catch up not only with Warren’s organization, but also with Cory Booker’s and a handful of others.
“People want to be asked, you have got to have an organization, and I think you’re going to see we put together a full blown organization,” Biden said Thursday. “I plan on being here to earn the vote of Iowa.”
While Biden is working to earn those votes, however, he’s not alone.
2008 Memories
Rosfjord said she can see the race in Iowa playing out similarly to 2008, when Hillary Clinton lost her grasp on inevitability and ended up coming in third behind Barack Obama and John Edwards. “Obama was nowhere, no one thought that he had a chance and he ended up winning the nomination,” she said. “Maybe it will be one of these supposed front-runners but maybe it won’t be.”
Booker, a senator from New Jersey, might hope the race plays out like the one a dozen years ago. “You and I both know that if the polls this far out were predictive, Jimmy Carter wouldn’t be president, Bill Clinton wouldn’t be president, Barack Obama wouldn’t be president,” he said Thursday at the National Association of Black Journalists convention in Miami. “In fact, I would be worried right now if I was polling ahead.”
Biden has had some minor stumbles that resonated nationally and may have an effect in Iowa. When he appeared to compare “poor kids” to “white kids” on Thursday while discussing education with the Asian & Latino Coalition in Des Moines, Biden caught himself and added, “wealthy kids, black kids, Asian kids, no I really mean it, but think how we think about it.”
‘Our Best Bet’
On Friday, while mingling with voters at the Iowa State Fair, a reporter asked Biden whether his verbal gymnastics hurt his electability.
"Well, that will be determined pretty soon, won’t it?” Biden said.
But Iowa hand Link, who worked on Biden’s 1988 campaign in the state, said things might turn out fine for his former boss.
“Biden’s resilience is stronger than I think most people expected and I think it comes from the fact that a lot of Democrats think he’s our best bet to beat Trump,” he said. “As long as he is our best bet to beat Trump he will continue to be resilient, because beating Trump is the number one, number two and number three factor for Democrats.”
--With assistance from Naomi Nix.
To contact the reporters on this story: Jennifer Epstein in Des Moines, Iowa at jepstein32@bloomberg.net;Emma Kinery in Burlington, Iowa at ekinery@bloomberg.net
To contact the editors responsible for this story: Wendy Benjaminson at wbenjaminson@bloomberg.net, Ros Krasny
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