India’s Best-Performing Stock Is Seeing a Wave of Optimistic Calls
Some analysts are turning even more bullish on India’s best-performing large-cap stock in 2020.
(Bloomberg) -- Some analysts are turning even more bullish on India’s best-performing large-cap stock in 2020.
In just about two weeks, at least four brokerages have raised their price targets on Divi’s Laboratories Ltd., one of the top producers of active pharmaceutical ingredients, with Jefferies India Pvt.’s estimate -- which targets a 21% gain over the next 12 months from current levels -- being the most bullish in data compiled by Bloomberg.
The optimism is stemming from the firm’s capacity-expansion plans and potential to win more business as India cuts its reliance on Chinese suppliers. Divi’s has started building a production facility near Kakinada in India’s Andhra Pradesh state, it said in an exchange filing last month. Second-quarter earnings topped estimates in early November.
“Capital discipline has been one of the hallmarks of this company,” said Siddhant Khandekar, an analyst at ICICIdirect.com. “Divi’s is known for optimum utilization of capital. There must be tangible orders on hand and that is why they are spending.”
| Brokerage | Price Target (Rupees) | Previous Target | Date of Change | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jefferies | 4,501.38 | 3,771.78 | Jan. 5 | Buy |
| Axis Capital | 4,500 | 3,800 | Jan. 8 | Buy |
| Motilal Oswal | 4,450 | 3,900 | Jan. 8 | Buy |
| ICICIdirect | 4,425 | 4,205 | Dec. 30 | Buy |
Overall in absolute terms, analysts’ average 12-month target price for Divi’s stock has risen about 134 rupees in the past four weeks, the biggest increase among 10 companies on the MSCI India Health Care Index. The stock currently has 17 buy ratings, two holds and three sell recommendations, data compiled by Bloomberg show.
“The stock could carry its momentum into this year,” said Tushar Manudhane, an analyst at Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd. in Mumbai. “They have a good track record of using new capacity efficiently.”
Valuation Jump
Still, potential advance in the share price over the next 12 months is capped at about 21%, based on even the most bullish analyst’s estimate. That’s tiny compared to the stock’s 108% surge in 2020, which marked a fourth straight year of gains.
One reason for that is valuation. Divi’s stock is now trading at almost 44 times its 12-month forward earnings, versus a five-year average multiple of 26.6, data compiled by Bloomberg show. It fell 1.5% to 3,710.20 rupees as of 1:31 p.m. in Mumbai Wednesday.
Further, one risk that could resurface this year for Indian pharmaceutical companies overall is regulatory scrutiny. They were largely spared inspections by the U.S. Food and Drug Administration in 2020, thanks to the pandemic.
Unique Model
That said, even as vaccine rollouts are prompting a rotation away from pandemic winners into beaten-down sectors, analysts see some trends working in Divi’s favor in the long run.
READ: India Issues Guideline for $1b Incentive for Drug Manufacturing
“Divi’s, although expensive, continues to benefit from tailwinds favoring Indian companies in API manufacturing,” Abhishek Sharma, an analyst at Jefferies in Mumbai, wrote in a note dated Jan. 5.
Indian API exporters have been increasing their share of the U.S. market at the expense of Europe and China-based rivals, he wrote. Divi’s got almost 90% of its revenue from exports in the fiscal year ended March 2020.
“The best part of this company is that it has been a play on both Contract Research & Manufacturing Services, or CRAMs, and active pharmaceutical ingredients, or APIs,” said ICICIdirect.com’s Khandekar, “That is Divi’s identity. There are very few instances of this kind of a blended model among other pharma companies in India.”
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