Dubai’s Property Slump Has Another Two Years to Run
(Bloomberg) -- Dubai’s homeowners will have to wait at least a couple more years for a long-running property slump to hit bottom as developers put a record number of new residences on the market this year.
About 31,500 homes will probably be completed this year, more than twice the city’s average annual demand over the last five years, according to Craig Plumb, head of Middle East research at broker Jones Lang LaSalle. That compares with the 22,000 homes finished in 2018.
The Dubai property market’s long decline since a peak in October 2014 has defied all predictions of a rebound over the last several years. While an oil price slump, fiscal austerity in Saudi Arabia and a strong dollar have driven away potential buyers, construction -- much of it by state controlled developers -- hasn’t slowed to meet the weaker demand.
Dubai’s residential values have slid about 25 percent from the 2014 peak, including a 10 percent drop last year. JLL expects values to decline by 5 percent to 10 percent this year.
Plumb said he doesn’t expect the market to hit bottom until 2021, with the city getting a lift from the World Expo 2020 and the state officials possibly taking steps to stabilize the market by reining in construction. The government owns the developer of man-made islands, Nakheel PJSC and Dubai Properties Group. It also holds 29 percent of builder Emaar Properties PJSC, which built the world’s tallest tower in the city.
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