IEA Says ‘Disorderly Brexit’ Would Add to Oil Demand Risks

(Bloomberg) -- A messy Brexit could affect growth in global oil demand over the next five years, according to the International Energy Agency.

“Ongoing trade disputes between major powers and a disorderly Brexit could lead to a reduction in the rate of growth of international trade and oil demand,” the IEA said in its medium-term oil-market report, which covers the period to 2024.

The rise in oil prices this year has been tempered by concerns over oil consumption following the U.S.-China trade dispute. The Paris-based IEA, which advises most major economies on energy policy, didn’t quantify the impact on demand in the event the U.K. leaves the European Union in a disorganized fashion. It projected that global oil consumption will increase by about 1.2 million barrels a day, or 1.2 percent, each year to 2024.

The U.K. is poised to leave the EU on March 29. Prime Minister Theresa May’s government has declared Brexit talks are “deadlocked” as ministers urged the EU to make a last minute concession before British lawmakers vote on a deal this week.

Bank of England Governor Mark Carney said this month that though the U.K. has made “constructive developments” in preparing for a no-deal Brexit, the economic impact of crashing out of the EU would still be substantial.

To contact the reporter on this story: Grant Smith in London at gsmith52@bloomberg.net

To contact the editors responsible for this story: James Herron at jherron9@bloomberg.net, Rakteem Katakey, Bruce Stanley

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