Democrats Get Harsh 2022 Wake-Up Calls From Virginia, New Jersey
GOP’s Youngkin Sends Democrats a 2022 Wake-Up Call From Virginia
(Bloomberg) -- Democrats received a harsh warning about their hopes for keeping control of Congress in 2022 as voters in Virginia, New Jersey and across the country flocked to Republican candidates, less than a year after President Joe Biden took office.
In the closely watched Virginia governor’s race, Republican Glenn Youngkin shook off his opponent’s attempts to yoke him to former President Donald Trump as suburban and independent voters returned to the GOP. And in New Jersey, Democratic Governor Phil Murphy was in a tougher-than-expected battle against Republican Jack Ciattarelli for another term -- even though Murphy had been favored to win by a comfortable margin in a state Biden won by 16 points.
Progressives took hits across the political map on Tuesday, with moderate Eric Adams’s victory in New York City highlighting the strength of his tough-on-crime message in a heavily Democratic city, as did the outcomes of local races on Long Island and in cities like Seattle and a Buffalo.
Tuesday’s outcomes highlight deepening strains in the coalition of suburban, independent and Black voters who helped Biden win the White House -- an ominous sign for Democrats’ bid to keep the House and Senate in the 2022 midterms. Since June, the president’s approval rating in Gallup polling has fallen 14 points, to 42% this month, hurt by inflation concerns, the tumultuous U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan and the failure to deliver promised infrastructure and social safety-net legislation.
Youngkin’s defeat of Democrat Terry McAuliffe -- a former governor and Democratic National Committee chair -- makes him the first Republican to win statewide since 2009 and offers Republicans a road map for how to prevail in the crucial 2022 midterm elections, including with a focus on issues like education that are core to suburban voters.
A political newcomer and former co-CEO of Carlyle Group Inc. Youngkin rejected Trump’s help several times during the campaign, declining to participate in a tele-rally Trump held on Monday. But Trump’s voters didn’t seem dissuaded, aided by Youngkin’s praise of the former president in the primary campaign.
“Trump was on the ballot for the people he attracts, but not on the ballot for the people he repels,” said Republican strategist Sarah Longwell, who previously led an anti-Trump GOP group.
In his acceptance speech, Youngkin never mentioned Trump or national political issues.
Republican Winsome Sears was elected Virginia’s lieutenant governor on Tuesday and will become the state’s first woman or Black person to hold that office. The former marine was also the first and only Black Republican elected to the commonwealth’s House of Delegates.
Black turnout in Virginia slipped compared to 2020, a sign of African Americans’ disenchantment that Biden has put his economic agenda ahead of issues such as police reform and voting rights. White voters accounted for 74% of Virginia voters on Tuesday compared with 67% in 2020, while Black voters comprised 16% of the electorate compared with 18% last year, CNN exit polls showed.
Youngkin, also won parents who had abandoned the party under Trump. Youngkin won 58% of fathers and 46% of mothers in CNN exit polls in Virginia, compared to Trump, who was even with Biden among fathers and won just 41% of mothers in CNN national exit polls in 2020.
McAuliffe carried the populous and liberal Washington suburbs, but that wasn’t enough to compete with Youngkin’s gains in the rest of the state.
Biden, who had predicted a McAuliffe victory on Tuesday hours before polls closed, insisted that a Republican win would not be a referendum on his presidency.
“I’ve not seen any evidence, that whether or not I am doing well or poorly, whether or not I’ve got my agenda passed or not, is going to have any real impact on winning or losing,” Biden said at a news conference in Glasgow after attending a pair of global summits.
He returned from Europe early Wednesday morning, just as Youngkin began his acceptance speech.
Delaware Senator Chris Coons said Wednesday that Democrats need to move forward with Biden’s agenda if they want to win in 2022.
“The only path forward is to deliver these two bills to President Biden’s desk,” Coons told MSNBC of the massive infrastructure and social spending measures.
While the midterms are a year away, Youngkin’s victory signals an even stronger disadvantage than Democrats already face with control of Congress and the fate of Biden’s first-term agenda on the line.
Virginia’s gubernatorial election is often watched as a test of approval on a new president’s first year because it’s one of the few significant offices up for grabs a year later. It’s also seen as an early barometer for how the parties will fare in the following year’s midterm elections.
The New Jersey race wasn’t watched as closely, in part because Murphy was expected to win easily and because it was fought more on local issues, such as property taxes. But it, too, contained worrying signs for Democrats, as Ciattarelli was able to run neck-and-neck with a governor whose approval ratings had been solid.
Both candidates in the Garden State addressed supporters during anxious election night speeches saying they were going to have to wait to count every vote. As of 4:04 a.m. on Wednesday, the two men were separated by just over 1,000 votes.
Republican strategist Scott Reed, the former chief political strategist for the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, said Youngkin “managed Trump perfectly” and ran a disciplined campaign, while McAuliffe didn’t talk about the future and was dragged down by Biden.
“This is the real canary in the coal mine for Democrats in Washington,” Reed said. “They over-reached, the country thinks they over-reached, and voters in Virginia punished them through McAuliffe.”
McAuliffe worked hard to portray Youngkin as a Trump acolyte. Youngkin threaded a needle that could serve as a model for Republicans in the midterms: Embrace Trump in the primaries and hold him at arm’s length among independents in the general election.
In the primary campaign, Youngkin said Trump “represents so much of why I’m running,” a quote that haunted him in numerous McAuliffe ads through the summer.
This fall, Youngkin refused to campaign with Trump, who nevertheless endorsed him several times and held the tele-rally on his behalf on election eve. As a result he outperformed Trump in some rural districts.
McAuliffe, Biden and top-name surrogates like former President Barack Obama, by contrast, campaigned against Youngkin only obliquely, focusing their remarks on a fear of a return of Trump, a tactic that failed in the face of the mild-mannered, fleece-vested Youngkin, despite his reported net worth of $440 million.
In the final stretch of the campaign, Youngkin focused his campaign on schools and benefited from the return of independent and suburban voters who voted Democratic in 2018 and 2020, motivated by their opposition to Trump.
Earlier in the campaign, polls showed the coronavirus was a top concern, an issue where more voters trusted McAuliffe’s stricter approach to mask and vaccine mandates.
But as pandemic fears began to fade, education came to the fore, fueling a surge in the polls in October for Youngkin, who stoked fears of critical race theory -- which is not taught in Virginia schools -- and tapping into parents’ frustrations at school closures many believed lasted too long during the pandemic.
McAuliffe countered by saying in a September debate that parents shouldn’t “be telling schools what they should teach,” a statement that backfired and overshadowed his attempts to portray Youngkin as race-baiting.
In a Fox News poll taken in late October, 52% of likely voters said they trusted Youngkin more on education, compared to 44% for McAuliffe, a 10-point reversal from a Fox poll earlier in the month.
Losses Among Independents
Republicans already had advantages heading into next year’s midterm elections. Democrats have only a 5-seat margin in the House and need Vice President Kamala Harris’s vote to control a 50-50 Senate. The president’s party historically loses seats in midterm elections, and Republicans control redistricting in many states after the 2020 Census -- allowing them to create more favorable GOP districts.
Biden won independents by 19 points in Virginia in 2020, but McAuliffe lost them to Youngkin by 9 points, according to exit polls.
Polls show independents have soured on Democrats. Biden’s approval rating among independents nationally was 32 points positive in April but now is 2 points negative, according to NBC News polling, said Jeff Horwitt, a Democratic pollster.
“That’s a huge problem for Democrats,” said GOP strategist David Winston.
©2021 Bloomberg L.P.