Gold Nears Six-Year High as Mideast Tensions Spur Haven Demand
The rally comes even as U.S.-China trade tensions ebb and U.S. equities post fresh records.
(Bloomberg) -- Gold neared a six-year high after a U.S. airstrike killed one of Iran’s most powerful generals, ratcheting up tensions in the Middle East and driving demand for havens.
Bullion rallied as much as 1.6% to $1,553.52 an ounce in the spot market, reaching the highest since September. Platinum futures briefly topped $1,000 an ounce to touch the highest since early 2018 in New York, while silver and other haven assets rose.
The strike in Baghdad ordered by President Donald Trump killed Qassem Soleimani, the Iranian general who led the Revolutionary Guards’ Quds force. Iran’s supreme leader vowed “severe retaliation.” The U.S. now plans to add 2,800 troops to the 700 already dispatched to Kuwait.
The news helped gold to build on the biggest annual gain in almost a decade, a rally that was driven by a weaker dollar, lower real rates and geopolitical concerns.
“Market players are now afraid that this marks another level of escalation in a region that is characterized by tension,” Daniel Briesemann, an analyst at Commerzbank AG, said by phone Friday. “The U.S. airstrike in Iraq, that’s the one and only driver of gold prices today.”
Gold for immediate delivery was up 1.2% at $1,546.91 at 2:46 p.m. in New York, taking this week’s gain to 2.5%, the most since August. The metal jumped 18% last year. Futures settled 1.6% higher.
Last year’s advance marked a positive shift in investor attitude toward gold, according to RBC Capital Markets, which predicted further gains this year and next. Goldman Sachs Group Inc., Citigroup Inc. and UBS Group AG have said they’re looking for $1,600 an ounce.
“Today’s event has probably only brought forward the inevitable test of the September high,” said Ole Hansen, head of commodity strategy at Saxo Bank A/S. “Rising inflation concerns through higher input prices -- oil and food -- combined with geopolitical uncertainty is a potent cocktail which supports a market already on the move.”
January is historically gold’s best month, according to Bloomberg Intelligence commodity strategist Mike McGlone, with an average advance of 2.7% over the past 20 years. The metal will approach $1,600 by February if it matches the 5.2% average increase of the past five years, he said.
Still, geopolitics typically doesn’t have a lasting impact on gold unless broader consequences for the economy or financial markets arise, said Carsten Menke, an analyst at Julius Baer.
Read More: Beware of a Short-Term Overreaction in Gold on Geopolitics
Gold extended gains after the latest U.S. ISM manufacturing data showed the weakest monthly performance since the end of the recession, according to a report Friday. That strengthens the case for owning bullion as a hedge against dimming growth outlook.
The purchasing managers’ index fell to 47.2 in December from 48.1, missing estimates for a rise in a Bloomberg survey of economists.
Prices held their advance after minutes from Federal Reserve officials’ December meeting showed their monetary policy was likely to remain appropriate “for a time” even amid what they saw as persistent downside risks.
Other precious metals
- Platinum futures for April delivery climbed as much as 1.7% to $1,001.40 an ounce on the New York Mercantile Exchange, the highest for a most-active contract since February 2018
- The price settled 0.5% higher
- Palladium futures also advanced on the Nymex, while silver futures rose on the Comex
--With assistance from Justina Vasquez.
To contact the reporters on this story: Ranjeetha Pakiam in Singapore at rpakiam@bloomberg.net;Elena Mazneva in London at emazneva@bloomberg.net
To contact the editors responsible for this story: Lynn Thomasson at lthomasson@bloomberg.net, ;Luzi Ann Javier at ljavier@bloomberg.net, Nicholas Larkin, Steven Frank
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