For 30% of U.S. Unemployed, Job Losses May Stick: Chart

About 30% of the increase in total U.S. unemployment from February to May can be explained by a reallocation shock.

Bjorn Van Roye &
Tom Orlik

15 Jun 2020, 08:23 PM IST

For 30% of U.S. Unemployed, Job Losses May Stick: Chart

Pedestrians wearing protective face masks sit on a bench outside the market. (Photographer: Chris Ratcliffe/Bloomberg)

(Bloomberg) -- About 30% of the increase in total U.S. unemployment from February to May can be explained by a reallocation shock, and so risks being long-lasting, according to Bloomberg Economics. About half of the rise in joblessness can be explained by the aggregate demand and supply shock, and so should begin to quickly reverse as lockdowns are eased. The remaining 20% stems from a decline in job matching efficiency -- potentially reflecting the current period of unusually generous unemployment benefits: That should also reverse quickly, assuming disincentives to work are removed.