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Five Things You Need to Know to Start Your Day

Get up to date on what’s moving global markets this morning.

Five Things You Need to Know to Start Your Day
A person wearing a protective face mask waits for a Bay Area Rapid Transit (BART) train in San Francisco, California, U.S. (Photographer: David Paul Morris/Bloomberg)

(Bloomberg) --

The number of coronavirus cases in Europe surpasses the count in China. The Reserve Bank of Australia is poised to unleash unconventional monetary policy today. And in response to the coronavirus pandemic, the Senate cleared the second major bill for paid sick leave and food assistance. Here are some of the things people in markets are talking about today. 

Europe surpassed China in the number of confirmed coronavirus cases and deaths Wednesday as Italy reported its deadliest day. According to data compiled by Bloomberg, Europe’s total of more than 85,000 infections exceeds China’s 80,900. Europe has also reported just under 4,000 deaths from Covid-19, compared with about 3,200 in China. Italy’s death count alone is 2,978. On Wednesday, Italy reported 475 deaths from the virus. That’s the highest death toll reported in a day by any country since the virus originated in Wuhan, China, late last year. China recorded its highest single-day death toll of 150 on Feb 23. With few signs that the march of the pathogen is slowing in Europe, countries across the region are struggling to cope with what has turned into the deadliest pandemic in more than a century. Meanwhile, a little closer to the Asian virus epicenter, China has given regulatory approval to start human trials of a vaccine. And in the U.S., the New York Stock Exchange will close its trading floors and go fully electronic, as New York Governor Andrew Cuomo mandated that non-essential businesses have no more than half their workforce in the office. Here’s the latest update on the virus’s progression.

Stocks in Asia were set for a weaker start after another plunge on Wall Street as investors moved to price more economic pain from the spreading pandemic. The dollar surged as liquidity evaporated in foreign-exchange markets. The S&P 500 fell as much as 9.8% and trading halts were triggered again, before paring declines in a late-session rally. Futures in Japan, Hong Kong and Australia all fell. Bonds tumbled around the world while the Bloomberg dollar index surged to an all-time high as investors sought to raise cash. The pound hit its lowest level against the greenback since 1985. Elsewhere, oil dropped below $25 a barrel for the first time since 2003 in London and tumbled 24% in New York after Saudi Arabia signalled it’s doubling down on a price war with Russia just as demand evaporates with the spreading coronavirus.

It’s Australia’s day of reckoning as the Reserve Bank’s conventional ammunition expires, with strategists expecting it to delve into its policy toolkit for unconventional measures to support the battered economy. Money market pricing suggests Governor Philip Lowe will reduce the cash rate to 0.25%, its effective lower bound, and likely pledge to keep it there for an extended period. Traders are also wagering the RBA will set an objective for government bond yields in order to lower risk-free rates across the economy. The bank is likely to control yield levels for bonds due in three-to-five years, said Andrew Ticehurst, a rates strategist at Nomura Holdings Inc. The central bank is pushing stimulus to the maximum as it joins the government in a fiscal-monetary injection to cushion an economy spiralling toward its first recession in almost 30 years. Prime Minister Scott Morrison is developing a second spending package that could come as soon as today. And on the politics front, Morrison slammed into “un-Australian” hoarders Wednesday, winning him back some public support after his popularity plunged over his handling of a wildfire crisis.

The Senate cleared the second major bill responding to the coronavirus pandemic, with lawmakers rushing to follow up with an additional economic rescue package that President Donald Trump’s administration estimates will cost $1.3 trillion. The 90-8 vote Wednesday, following House passage on Saturday, sends Trump a measure providing paid sick leave, food assistance for vulnerable populations and financial help for coronavirus testing. As the Senate voted, Republican and Democratic leaders were already working on the next proposal. “The Senate’s going to stay in session until we finish phase three, the next bill, and send it over to the House,” Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell said immediately after the vote. As Americans halted much of their daily lives to avoid spreading the virus and markets continued to plunge Wednesday, the White House dramatically scaled up its request to Congress for an additional $1.3 trillion, including $500 billion in direct payments to Americans, $50 billion in loans to the distressed airline sector, and $150 billion to “severely distressed sectors” of the economy from the virus outbreak. Elsewhere, other governments are finally getting the message that they’ll have to run exponentially bigger budget deficits to keep economies afloat as the coronavirus brings the world to a sudden halt.

In a crisis, it is said, all correlations go to one. Threats get so overwhelming that everything reacts in unison. And the common thread running through all facets of financial markets and the real economy right now is simple: a global cash crunch of epic proportions. So what are the signs that the world is focused on liquidity above all else? Firstly, a dash to cash. Investors piled $137 billion into cash-like assets in the five days ending March 11, according to a Bank of America report citing EPFR Global data. Its monthly fund manager survey showed the fourth-largest monthly jump in allocations to cash ever, from 4% to 5.1%. There’s also a pervading “sell everything” mindset. A desire for liquidity means long and short positions alike are being closed, according to the most recent commitment of traders report from the CFTC. And that’s not all. Here’s a list of all the signals pointing to a looming cash crunch.

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