Five Things You Need to Know to Start Your Day
Good morning. There’s a new date to mark on the calendar for U.K. politics fans, there’s a potential mega-merger in the autos sector and the Federal Reserve’s latest decision is coming. Here’s what’s moving markets.
Fetch your most fluorescent highlighter and put rings around Dec. 12 on the calendar, because that is when the U.K. is to have an election likely to play out as a proxy vote on Brexit. That’s the same date Prime Minister Boris Johnson had proposed and which Parliament rejected a day before, but now seemingly there’s a commitment that a no-deal departure is off the table. Now it will be time to start poring over polls and deciphering how to play an election campaign in markets, with some investors saying that any outcome will be better than the current status quo. But with the possibility of vote splitting and the specter of a hung Parliament, that could prove an optimistic view.
Eyes have been trained on the saga in Westminster but after European markets close Wednesday, the biggest game in town for markets will arrive. The Federal Reserve is set to announce its latest policy decision and watchers expect it may hawkishly cut interest rates, with some officials likely not seeing the necessity to ease more. The policymakers will be considering an economy where consumer confidence has hit a four-month-low, where the shape of the economy is shifting away from manufacturing and a dollar that strategists think will remain strong no matter where rates go or if a recession emerges. Third-quarter U.S. GDP is due too and is expected to show a slowdown.
A potential mega-acquisition in the luxury goods space dominated trader chatter on Monday, but the ante has been upped. Fiat Chrysler Automobiles NV’s shares in the U.S. surged following a report that it’s holding talks to merge with Peugeot and Citroen parent PSA Group. The pair had held talks about a partnership earlier in the year and Fiat Chrysler held failed talks with Renault SA, PSA’s French rival, so watch the European autos sector for any reaction to the new consolidation speculation. Already though, questions have been raised about whether such a deal would solve the China woes the two companies face.
Brace yourself for an onslaught of European earnings to digest in the next two days. For Wednesday, we’ve already had a positive update from emerging markets-focused bank Standard Chartered Plc and a mixed report from plane maker Airbus SE, plus a beat from Swiss bank Credit Suisse Group AG and a revenue miss from Deutsche Bank AG. We’ll also have auto giant Volkswagen AG, French oil major Total SA, German chemicals giant Bayer AG, U.K. high street bellwether Next Plc and drugmaker GlaxoSmithKline Plc, so steel yourself for a busy session.
Stocks had a mixed day in Asia as the Fed decision is awaited and U.S. stocks edged back from record highs. European futures are pointing to a flat open. Plenty more to keep an eye on in a busy day. Euro-area consumer confidence, German inflation and French GDP are all coming, as are rate decisions from both Canada and Brazil, a couple of European Central Bank policymakers will give speeches and South Africa’s finance minister will present a budget policy statement.
What We’ve Been Reading
This is what’s caught our eye over the past 24 hours.
- The unsettled life of Boris Johnson’s pal Jennifer Arcuri.
- A few days in the lives of Brexit currency traders.
- Meet the new bubble: crypto loans.
- Tesla Model 3 owners tell Elon Musk what went right, what went wrong.
- All the forces threatening the world’s hottest economies.
- Modern humans first appeared in northern Botswana.
- French wine is going to get more expensive for American drinkers.
©2019 Bloomberg L.P.